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US Retains Lead in Global Crude Oil Production, Output Growth to Continue Through 2027, EIA Says

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The US remained the world's largest crude oil producer in 2025 and is set to extend its lead as higher shale productivity continues to support output growth, the US Energy Information Administration said Thursday.

Averaging 13.6 million barrels per day of crude oil and lease condensate, the US established a new production record in 2025, surpassing the previous high of 13.2 million b/d in 2024.

The EIA said US output was about 40% higher than production in Russia and Saudi Arabia.

Improved drilling productivity and operating efficiency across major shale basins helped producers increase output despite lower oil prices.

West Texas Intermediate crude averaged $65 per barrel in 2025, down from $77/bbl in 2024 as global oversupply weighed on prices, the agency said.

The Permian Basin led production growth after crude oil output increased 4% to 6.6 million b/d in 2025 from 6.3 million b/d a year earlier. The basin contributed about 48% of total US crude oil production, according to the EIA.

Shale development reversed decades of declining US crude oil production after 2008 and transformed the country into the world's largest crude oil producer. The EIA said shale production has also made the US the largest crude oil producer ever recorded.

Saudi Arabia increased crude oil production to 9.6 million b/d in 2025 from 9.2 million b/d in 2024 as OPEC+ gradually unwound voluntary production cuts, the agency said.

Russia produced about 9.9 million b/d in both 2024 and 2025. The EIA said voluntary production cuts and the continuing conflict with Ukraine prevented output from increasing further.

The EIA expects US crude oil production to average about 13.7 million b/d in 2026 before rising to 14.2 million b/d in 2027 under its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

West Texas Intermediate crude prices are forecast to average $88/bbl in 2026, up $22/bbl from 2025. The agency expects higher prices and continued gains in shale well productivity to drive additional production growth.

The EIA said rising crude oil production has also boosted associated natural gas output from oil-rich regions such as the Permian Basin, supporting domestic gas-fired electricity generation and growing exports.

The US remained the world's largest natural gas producer in 2024, while 2025 production data will be released later this year.

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