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US Retail Fuel Margins Robust Amid Crude Market Volatility, RBC Says

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US retail fuel margins remained robust for the week ended June 25 despite persistent volatility in crude markets, with estimated average margins rising by about $0.04 per gallon week over week, RBC Capital Markets said in a note on Friday.

The rise was primarily driven by an around $0.16/gallon week over week decline in average wholesale fuel prices, which was partially offset by an about $0.12/gallon weekly decrease in average retail prices, the note said.

Meanwhile, the 12-month and 12-week moving averages for retail fuel margins continued to be in the low-$0.40/gallon range.

On the demand side, weekly gasoline supplied declined by 4.7% from the prior week for the period ending June 19, the note said, citing the US Energy Information Administration data. This compares with a 5.5% week-over-week increase in gasoline supplied for the week ending June 12.

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Renewable Fuel Equities Outperform Broader Market Despite Weekly Dip, TPH Energy Says

Second-quarter renewable fuel margins remained stronger than the prior quarter despite mixed weekly trends, while renewable fuel stocks outperformed the broader market, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Renewable fuel equities slipped an average of 0.1% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.0% decline, TPH said. On the renewable natural gas side, OPAL Fuels (OPAL) gained 14.0%, while Aemetis (AMTX) dropped 12.8%.Green Plains (GPRE) rose 1.8%, although TPH said the stock could have reacted more strongly after the White House urged lawmakers to approve year-round E15 gasoline sales. The company also noted investor interest in Neste, which gained 2.6% despite lower oil prices and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Weekly margin indicators produced mixed results, with renewable diesel margins increasing by 11 cents per gallon to 50 cents/gal, while Midwest ethanol margins fell 2 cents/gal and US soy crush margins declined $2 per ton. Renewable natural gas margins were unchanged, TPH added.Compared with the first quarter, most spot margin indicators strengthened during the second quarter, with renewable diesel margins from soybean oil rising 81 cents/gal, white grease increasing 49 cents/gal, and corn oil gaining 21 cents/gal, TPH said.Midwest ethanol margins improved 31 cents/gal, soy crush margins increased $52 per ton, and renewable natural gas margins rose $1 per million British thermal units from the first quarter, according to TPH Energy.The largest quarter-over-quarter decline came in renewable diesel produced from tallow, where margins fell by 63 cents/gal as feedstock costs increased sharply, the note added.Among last week's industry developments, the US finalized the Regenerative Feedstock Rule, while LanzaTech canceled its 80,000-metric-ton ethanol-to-jet sustainable aviation fuel plant in Wales, TPH said.The report also highlighted Amazon's (AMZN) investment in Brazilian sustainable aviation fuel producer GranBio and noted that China's used cooking oil exports reached an 18-month high as shipments to the US increased, according to TPH Energy.

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Commodities

US Oil Update: Crude Rises as US-Iran De-escalation Eases Supply Disruption Fears

Crude oil futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday after an agreement between the US and Iran to halt recent hostilities following a weekend of tit-for-tat strikes that reignited concerns over potential supply disruptions.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 1.8% to $70.45 per barrel, while Brent futures edged higher by 1.1% to $72.78/bbl.Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the muted move higher can be attributed to US and Iranian rockets in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, which ended with an agreement between the US and Iran to stop.The US and Iran are poised to hold fresh talks on Tuesday in Doha, Qatar, President Trump said in a social media post on Monday, following a weekend of hostilities."The meeting in Doha is going to be perhaps important, perhaps not. We're going to find out... It's really very simple," Trump told reporters at the White House on Monday.However, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said "no technical talks" with the US have been scheduled in Doha this week, refuting media reports that the two sides were set to meet in the Qatari capital."Holding technical meetings of the working groups has not been scheduled for this week," Gharibabadi said, adding that the first round of talks will be held once conditions are met.Traffic via the Strait of Hormuz continued to move through on Monday, with MarineTraffic reporting 108 verified crossings between 26 and 28 June, covering container, tanker, LNG-linked, bulk, and service vessel movements.Saxo Bank strategists said Iran's foreign minister reiterated that Tehran retains exclusive authority over traffic through the strategic waterway under the preliminary peace agreement, thereby elevating the risk of renewed supply disruptions.Meanwhile, Iran has stressed that the Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions, emphasizing its sovereign right over the waterway. Tehran reportedly plans to move forward with exerting its control over maritime traffic via the strategic waterway, even without Oman.Schieldrop said that Oman told European officials that ships may have to pay fees for transiting the Hormuz in the future, while Iran has stated that free passage is guaranteed only for the 60 days of the ongoing US-Iranian negotiations.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Fall as Robust Supply Offsets Heat-Driven Demand Outlook

US natural gas futures extended losses in late trading on Monday as strong domestic production and ample supplies outweighed forecasts of hotter weather that was expected to lift cooling demand across much of the country.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract fell 1.83% to $3.172 per million British thermal units.The decline followed strong production data over the weekend. Barchart said US dry gas output climbed to 114 billion cubic feet per day on Sunday, the highest daily production level in more than two and a half months. Citing BNEF data, it said Monday production eased to 111.2 Bcf/d, down 1.3 Bcf/d from Friday but still 2.3% higher than a year earlier.The elevated supply backdrop has continued to limit gains despite expectations for stronger seasonal demand.Gelber & Associates estimated total domestic supply averaged about 116.0 Bcf/d over the past two weeks, consisting of roughly 110.4 Bcf/d of dry gas production and 5.6 Bcf/d of net Canadian imports.Weather forecasts, however, point to rising electricity demand as above-normal temperatures spread across much of the eastern US.The Commodity Weather Group said forecasts turned hotter on Monday, with above-average temperatures expected across the eastern half of the country through July 3. Aegis Hedging said Lower 48 population-weighted temperatures are projected to remain above the 10-year average during the first week of July, supporting natural gas demand.A heat dome centered over the Midwest is forecast to expand eastward this week, bringing triple-digit temperatures to a broad swath of the country and boosting expectations for power-sector gas consumption.BNEF put Lower 48 gas demand at 75.4 Bcf/d on Monday, up 4.2 Bcf/d from Friday and 3.3% higher than a year earlier. Net flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 19.2 Bcf/d, up 0.1 Bcf/d from Friday and 1.0% higher than the previous week."As the market adjusts to the new prompt month, the primary test will be whether this incoming wave of midsummer power demand can outpace a resilient supply stack and begin whittling down the overall storage surplus," Gelber & Associates said.