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US Oil Update: Oil Benchmarks Surge Past $100/bbl Mark on Supply Risks, Chinese Demand

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Crude oil prices hit $100 per barrel for the first time since May as US military strikes near Kharg Island heightened supply concerns, while traders also looked for signs of a recovery in import demand from China.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 4.1% to $100.03 per barrel, while Brent futures surged 4% to $105.24/bbl. Both contracts hit their highest since May.

Thinning commercial stockpiles have forced China back into the physical crude market earlier than expected to secure prompt crude barrels ahead of an anticipated demand recovery, analysts said.

Saxo Bank analysts said Thursday, "China is reportedly set to resume crude purchases this month."

ING analysts noted that prices have firmly broken past the $100/bbl threshold as geopolitical tensions escalate, triggered by recent US military strikes on Iranian tankers near Kharg Island and subsequent retaliatory warnings from Tehran.

These supply anxieties have been further compounded by tightening inventory data, with the American Petroleum Institute reporting a 300,000-barrel draw for the week ending Sep. 4, following a substantial 2.6-million-barrel decline the prior week.

Meanwhile, political reactions to the price surge have intensified, with US President Donald Trump addressing the domestic fallout during a press gaggle at Joint Base Andrews.

Trump said elevated crude prices could persist through the upcoming midterm elections before tumbling, projecting that gasoline could eventually fall below $2 per gallon.

Market participants now await the official US Energy Information Administration petroleum inventory report for clearer visibility into domestic supply resilience.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for the fifth straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 400,000 barrels per day over the year.

This compares with OPEC's global oil demand growth forecast at 600,000 b/d year over year in August, 800,000 b/d in July, 1 million b/d in June, 1.2 mmb/d in May, and 1.4 mmb/d in April.

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Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Futures Gain as Ship Attacks Escalate US-Iran Conflict, Threaten Supply

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Wednesday as a new wave of attacks on vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz heightened fears that the escalating US-Iran conflict will further disrupt crude supplies from the Persian Gulf.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures gained 3.8% to $96.61 per barrel, while Brent futures surged 3.8% to $101.60/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said that the tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran point to continued supply tightness and an elevated risk of further price gains.President Trump said Wednesday that energy prices elevated due to the ongoing Middle East conflict will not come down until after the midterm elections. "Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward," Trump told reporters during a press gaggle at Joint Base Andrews.Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps said Wednesday that Tehran will respond to any attack with a far greater number of strikes, noting that if the US hits two or three Iranian targets, its navy would respond by hitting 20 targets.The US Central Command said Tuesday that its forces destroyed five Iranian crude oil tankers in retaliation for attempted attacks on an American warship.Centcom said that the US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters.Iranian media said that Tehran, in response, targeted two US warships and eight oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, marking the biggest wave of tit-for-tat attacks on vessels in the strategic waterway by both sides since the onset of the Middle East conflict in February.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations said on Wednesday that a tanker was struck by a drone in Iraqi territorial waters. The UKMTO also reported that several merchant vessels in the Gulf had been hit by disabling fire overnight.The maritime security agency said a vessel at anchorage off Dubai was listing, possibly taking on water after being struck by a projectile.The escalation reinforces the view that "we are still some way from a restart in talks," ING strategists said, adding that, in the meantime, the market is likely to continue to price in a sizeable risk premium.Meanwhile, the developments come as Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis target energy facilities in Saudi Arabia.On Tuesday, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Affairs Ministry said Yemen's Houthis targeted civilian and economic assets in the cities of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jazan and Najran. Over 70 civilians were injured in the attacks, the ministry said.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that with military action targeting tankers and energy infrastructure, the threat of deeper disruption to Gulf exports risks tightening markets further and pushing Brent back toward triple-digit levels.On the supply front, US distillate fuel inventories are forecast to fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the five-year low through much of 2027, the Energy Information Administration said.The agency said that tight global supplies of distillate fuels such as diesel have pushed up domestic prices and bolstered US exporters to increase shipments.Tightness in the global distillate market has raised domestic prices and incentivized US exporters to increase distillate exports, the EIA said in its September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook released Wednesday.Meanwhile, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Wednesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 300,000 barrels in the week ended Sep. 4, following a 2.6-million-bbl draw the previous week, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Thursday.

Oil & Energy

Trump Says Oil Prices Above $100/bbl Could Persist Through Midterms, US Not Seeking Iran Talks

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday oil prices above $100 per barrel could persist through the midterm elections, extending his forecast for lower crude prices beyond the vote.President Trump made the remarks during a press gaggle with reporters at Joint Base Andrews."I think it's going to take a little bit longer than the midterm [elections]," Trump said."...right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward", Trump said, adding, "I think for gasoline we'll get them below $2 a gallon."Trump said Iran was trying to prolong the war to influence the US midterm elections and weaken his party's political position."I think the war will end immediately after the election because they can't hold out any longer," Trump said.He said Iran's economy is under severe pressure, citing 300% inflation, a weakened currency and unpaid soldiers."We control the strait and lots of other things," Trump said, adding that US forces had taken out nine Iranian ships and warning that more attacks would follow.Trump said Iran could still pursue talks with the US, but he signaled no active effort toward negotiations, saying, "a negotiation could possibly happen, but it's not something we're looking at."

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Iran Vows to Escalate as Attacks Intensify

Iran is prepared for a prolonged war with the US and will intensify counterstrikes if Washington continues attacking its territory and infrastructure, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing a senior Iranian official.The official reportedly said Tehran would not yield to a US naval blockade or attacks on its oil tankers, despite worsening economic pressures. Iran has rebuilt military capabilities since the war's most intense phase in April and retains enough missiles for an extended conflict.The comments came after renewed strikes by both sides, including attacks on energy and commercial vessels. Brent crude rose above $100 per barrel as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz persisted.The Iranian Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)