FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Futures Rise as US, Iran Agree to Halt Strikes, Pursue Talks

By

Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Monday after the US and Iran agreed to halt hostilities and pursue peace talks, easing immediate concerns about a supply disruption, though traders remained cautious about the truce's durability.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced by 2.4% to $70.90 per barrel, while Brent futures edged higher by 1.6% to $73.16/bbl.

Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said the muted move higher can be attributed to US and Iranian rockets in the Persian Gulf over the weekend, which ended with an agreement between the US and Iran to stop.

Iranian and US officials are slated to meet in Doha on Tuesday in an effort to prevent further escalation following a weekend of flare-ups that threatened to derail negotiations aimed at ending the Middle East conflict.

On Sunday, the US Central Command said that fighter jets struck 10 Iranian military targets in and near the Hormuz in retaliation for a drone strike on the Panamanian-flagged tanker, the M/T Kiku.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard, in retaliation, launched missiles and drones at the Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait and the 5th Fleet naval base in Salman Port, Bahrain.

President Trump said on Monday that the US and Iran are set to resume peace talks in Doha on Tuesday. "Iran has requested a meeting. "It will take place tomorrow in Doha!," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

However, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said "no technical talks" with the US have been scheduled in Doha this week, refuting media reports that the two sides were set to meet in the Qatari capital.

"Holding technical meetings of the working groups has not been scheduled for this week," Gharibabadi said, adding that the first round of talks will be held once conditions are met.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that crude prices are likely to remain under downward pressure as geopolitical risk premiums continue to unwind and regional supply recovers, although uncertainty over the durability of the ceasefire could keep short-term volatility elevated.

Meanwhile, commercial vessels continued to move through the Strait on Monday, with Kpler reporting that three Global Feeder Shipping vessels entered the Gulf between June 26 and 28.

Saxo Bank strategists said Iran's foreign minister reiterated that Tehran retains exclusive authority over traffic through the strategic waterway under the preliminary peace agreement, thereby elevating the risk of renewed supply disruptions.

Elsewhere, Gharibabadi said in a post on X on Monday that Iran held its first meeting with Oman on the future management of the Strait of Hormuz.

"While reviewing current issues related to the Strait, we exchanged views on the future management of the Strait within the framework of paragraph five of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding," Gharibabadi said.

Related Articles

Commodities

Weekly US Natural Gas Prices Advance Despite Bearish Storage Build

US natural gas markets were set to end another week higher, despite the higher-than-expected storage build.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month August contract rose to $3.287 per million British thermal unit, from $3.20/MMBtu on June 19. The July contract settled at $3.231/MMBtu on Friday.Natural gas spot prices fell by $0.10/MMBtu to $3.22/MMBtu during the week ended June 24, from $3.32/MMBtu the prior week, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released Thursday.Prices were mixed across major regional hubs, from a decrease of $1.32/MMBtu at SoCal Border-Ehrenberg to an increase of $0.14/MMBtu at Chicago Citygate.While prices dropped at the Waha Hub in the Permian Basin by $0.16/MMBtu to $1.50/MMBtu, it remained positive for the seventh consecutive trading day, the longest such streak since late January of this year, with Mexican pipeline outlets providing much-needed support.US LNG feedgas flows have similarly recovered strongly after being under pressure over the past few weeks, as several leading facilities underwent spring maintenance.Flows averaged over 19 billion cubic feet per day throughout the week, ahead of the 30-day moving average of 18.21 Bcf per day, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model.The net injection into storage for the week ended June 19 was 76 Bcf, ahead of last week's 73 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 2,835 Bcf, according to EIA data.The net build was significantly above forecasts, which expected just 67 Bcf in injections, and above the five-year average for this period, at 75 Bcf. It, however, fell short of the 96 Bcf in net injections during the same week last year, according to data compiled by Investing.com.All regions reported a net injection during the week, with the Midwest reporting the largest increase at 34 Bcf, followed by the Eastern and South Central regions at 26 and 13 Bcf, respectively.At 2,835 Bcf, US working gas inventories were 49 Bcf, or 2% below the corresponding period a year ago, while reporting a surplus of 152 Bcf, or 6% compared to the five-year average for this period.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, the current storage situation offers a strong cushion, even as "the pace of storage growth continues to consistently lag 2025."The analysts also expect next week's storage figures to "show a sizable injection" before warm weather conditions begin to weigh on storage builds.Weather forecasts call for above-normal temperatures across over two-thirds of the country from July 3 to July 9, according to the National Weather Service, which is expected to increase cooling demand and, in turn, higher gas-fired power generation.A total of 35 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, down from 36 the previous week, with a combined capacity of 135 Bcf, 2 Bcf higher than a week earlier.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count increased by three from 122 the previous week to 125 in the week ending June 26, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 109 gas rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 21 to 770 from 749 the previous week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $13.82/MMBtu for the week ended June 24, $1.29/MMBtu lower than the previous week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $15.62/MMBtu, about $2.04/MMBtu below the prior week.

$BKR
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Price Decline Despite Heat Dome Forecasts

US natural gas futures were down in late Friday trade as the July NYMEX Henry Hub contract expired and the August contract became the front month, with forecasts for extreme heat next week offset by comfortable supply fundamentals.The July contract settled at $3.231 per million British thermal units at expiration, while August edged 0.24% lower to $3.287/MMBtu. The continuous Henry Hub contract fell 3.32% to $3.232/MMBtu.According to Energy Buyers Guide, July futures dropped more than 11 cents on Friday, settling more than 20 cents below the session high after heavy selling in the final hour. Despite the late decline, the contract posted the highest expiration settlement since February, lifting the average 2026 contract expiration price to $3.863/MMBtu. July also marked the fifth consecutive contract to expire below its 2025 counterpart, though by only three cents.Weather forecasts continued to underpin expectations of strong demand. The US National Weather Service said much of the eastern US will see temperatures in the 90s and low 100s degrees Fahrenheit next week, with heat index values reaching 105-110 degrees Fahrenheit in many areas. Overnight temperatures are also expected to remain unusually warm.Energy Buyers Guide said power-sector gas demand should reach summer highs but noted traders remain focused on whether the heat persists beyond next week.Supply data remained bearish. Barchart, citing BNEF, said US dry gas production rose 0.5 Bcf/d to 112.5 Bcf/d on Friday, up 4.7% from a year earlier. LNG feedgas deliveries increased 4.5% week over week to 19.1 Bcf/d as maintenance at export facilities eased.The market also continued to digest Thursday's EIA storage report, which showed a 76 Bcf inventory build for the week ended June 19, above expectations for a 69 Bcf injection. US gas inventories were 5.7% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating supplies remain adequate despite stronger summer demand prospects.

Commodities

Money Managers Little Changed in Net Long Positions in Biofuel Futures, Options Markets, CFTC Says

Money managers make little changes to net long positions in the soybean oil futures and options markets, D4 and D6 Renewable Identification Numbers, and ethanol futures and options markets, according to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders Report.The weekly COT Report, as of the week ending June 23, showed that money managers are net long, a bet that the market will go higher, in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard market by 62,470 contracts, while producers/merchants/processors/users or physical market participants are net short by 79,273 contracts.The COT report showed that money managers are net long by 1,504 contracts in the D6 RIN Current Year futures and options markets. The physical market participants are net long by 242 contracts.In the D4 Biodiesel RIN Current Year futures and options markets, money managers hold a net long position of 1,705, while industry participants are net short by 2,167 contracts.For ethanol, money managers are net long by 5,114 contracts, while commercial market participants are net short by 5,466 contracts.Money managers are net long soybean oil futures and options by 103,589 contracts, while industry participants are net short by 185,980 contracts.Money managers are net short Malaysian palm oil futures by 3,464 contracts, while the physical market participants are net long by 8,285 contracts.