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US Oil Update: Futures Fall After US, Iran Tout Progress in Talks, Sanctions Waiver

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Crude oil futures retreated in midday trading on Monday after signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations, and the authorization of Iranian energy exports eased concerns about near-term supply constraints.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 2.4% to $74.73 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 3.5% to $77.76/bbl.

EBW AnalyticsGroup strategists said WTI for July delivery fell as low as $73.58/bbl on Friday after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding that raised expectations of the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

The analysts said that, though Iran reiterated threats to close the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, more than 17 million barrels per day transited the strategic waterway on Saturday.

On Monday, the US authorized the sale of Iranian oil and fuel as part of an agreement to end the Middle East conflict.

The US Treasury Department issued a 60-day license that allows Iran to sell its energy products through Aug. 21 and make payments in US dollars. The waiver also allows for the importation of Iranian crude oil and other petrochemical and petroleum products into the US.

"In line with the ongoing productive talks in Switzerland, Iran has committed to free and open transit in the Strait of Hormuz and to permit International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors into their country," US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a post on X.

Meanwhile, the US and Iran made progress during peace talks aimed at reaching a final deal within 60 days, including an agreement to end hostilities in Lebanon. Vice President JD Vance said on Monday that talks between the US and Iran have made "great progress" despite "threatening" and "whining."

Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi described the talks as having delivered "major progress," noting that Tehran had secured waivers for oil and petrochemical exports, the lifting of the blockade on its ports, and the release of some frozen assets.

On the supply front, the latest shipping data show an uptick in oil and liquefied natural gas tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over the 19-21 June period, though overall flows remain below pre-conflict levels.

MarineTraffic said a total of 71 confirmed vessel transits via the strategic waterway, with activity peaking at 35 crossings on Saturday.

However, tanker traffic via the Strait remains about 15% below pre-conflict levels, EBW said, adding that alternative supply routes and weakening Asian demand are helping loosen balances.

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, lower Chinese imports, and strategic petroleum reserve releases are adding to available barrels, potentially allowing inventories to rebuild later this summer.

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Weekly Crude Prices Plunge to 3-Month Low as US-Iran Deal Reopens Strait of Hormuz

Crude prices declined below $80 per barrel to a three-month low this week after an interim US-Iran peace deal dismantled the Persian Gulf blockade, clearing the way for million barrels of stranded oil to return to a market already facing weak demand forecasts.West Texas Intermediate settled at $77.54/bbl from $84.29/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $80.38/bbl from $86.85/bbl a week earlier.Brent crude futures fell for their second straight week following the peace deal, losing about 8% so far this week, while West Texas Intermediate futures shed about 10%.Both contracts fell to their lowest levels since early March.The selloff was triggered by a 60-day memorandum of understanding signed by the US and Iran.On Thursday, the US Central Command officially lifted its maritime blockade, allowing commercial tankers to safely resume transit through the vital Strait of Hormuz.Several media outlets confirmed that idling Saudi Arabian supertankers and previously dark vessels had begun moving, citing shipping data.Kpler estimated that the reopening will unlock a massive backlog of oil, including 90 million barrels of stranded non-Iranian crude and roughly 70 million barrels of Iranian oil.While analysts caution that production ramp-ups and lingering mine-clearing security assessments could take up to six months to fully normalize, the immediate release of floating storage represents an enormous near-term increase in available supply.On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration showed commercial crude inventories drew down sharply by 8.3 million barrels.Adding long-term pressure, the International Energy Agency slashed its 2026 demand outlook by 1.1 million barrels per day, citing severe economic slowdowns in China and OECD nations.The IEA warned of a massive supply overhang by 2027, projecting global supply to surge by 8 million b/d, while demand increases by a modest 2 million b/d.This stands in stark opposition to OPEC's bullish forecast, which expects oil demand to steadily expand to 113.3 million b/d by 2030.However, analysts expect a decline in prices. "Oil prices are unlikely to fall much further in the near term, even as they 'grind lower' over time," Goldman Sachs analysts noted.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count remained unchanged at 433 in the week ending June 18, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Thursday. That compares with 438 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by seven to 749 from 742 the previous week.

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