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US Oil Update: Futures Drop as Traders Assess Mixed Geopolitical Signals

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Oil benchmarks declined more than 1% on Tuesday as traders assessed conflicting diplomatic signals against a backdrop of severe physical supply disruptions.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.4% to $91.75 per barrel, and Brent futures were down 0.3% to $94.69/bbl.

"Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours," Saxo Bank analysts said.

The immediate downward pressure followed comments from US President Donald Trump, who stated Monday that negotiations with Iran are actively continuing.

Trump expressed confidence that a deal to extend the current ceasefire and successfully reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be finalized over the coming week.

However, this optimism has yet to be matched by Tehran. According to Iran's Mehr News, a government source confirmed that the nation has not yet formally responded to the proposed final text of the temporary agreement.

The fragile nature of these backchannel talks was put on display Monday when prices rebounded from a six-week low.

That spike was triggered by reports that Iranian officials had abruptly halted indirect negotiations with Washington to protest Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon.

Adding to the complexity, structural gridlock over the proposed agreement's fine print continues to stall progress.

Analysts at TPH warned that a US-backed uranium provision is highly likely to encounter stiff resistance from Tehran. This non-oil roadblock is further complicating diplomatic efforts already strained by what Iranian officials have repeatedly criticized as shifting, inconsistent US negotiating positions.

The main focus for logistics and supply chains remains the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime shipping artery that remains effectively shut.

Analysts note that the ongoing closure sustains intense long-term anxieties over supply disruptions and keeps global energy prices highly elevated.

This prolonged maritime blockade has triggered an unprecedented reshuffling of global oil flows, directly benefiting North American producers.

A Reuters analysis of ship-tracking data revealed on Monday that US crude oil exports surged to a record 5.6 million barrels in May as international importers aggressively scour the globe for alternative origins.

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