FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Futures Climb as Markets Weigh Hormuz Reopening, Maritime Risk

By

Crude oil futures climbed in midday trading on Thursday as markets weighed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing concerns about vessel safety in the strategic waterway after an incident involving a cargo ship off the Omani coast.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 1.9% to $71.66 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 1.7% to $75.01/bbl.

Gelber & Associates said traders are shifting focus to upcoming OPEC+ guidance and US inventory data, both of which could determine whether the recent correction has run its course or if additional downside remains.

US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 mmbbls in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Crude inventories are now about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.

Fuel inventories rose, with gasoline stocks rising by 2.1 million barrels last week, while distillate increased by 3.1 million barrels, the agency said.

On Thursday, the maritime group UKMTO reported a vessel had been struck by an unknown projectile in the Hormuz off the coast of Oman, stoking concerns among traders about maritime safety as the US and Iran seek to end the conflict permanently.

The incident came a day after Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned vessels that any new transit route via the Hormuz established without coordination with Tehran is "unacceptable and dangerous".

The IRGC Navy said that coordination with Iran's Navy is "mandatory" for transit through the strategic waterway.

Soojin Kim, a research analyst at MUFG, said that although uncertainties persist over issues such as Iran's nuclear program, shipping fees through the Strait of Hormuz, and sanctions implementation, the market is increasingly pricing in a sustained normalization of supply.

Meanwhile, the latest shipping data shows that more commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler reporting 70 verified crossings on June 24 since the US and Iran reached an agreement to reopen the waterway.

Kpler analysts said that the US-Iran framework and the lifting of the US blockade appear to have provided a short-term confidence boost, although Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards warned that using the Omani route could create a new source of contention.

On the supply front, Rystad Energy strategists projected that shut-in production across the Gulf region had fallen to 9.6 million barrels per day in mid-June, down from 11.7 million b/d just three weeks ago.

The analysts said the US-Iran peace deal, the US sanctions waiver on Iranian crude exports, and Gulf producers reporting restart timelines ahead of earlier estimates have shifted the supply outlook in quick succession.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Trump Says Iran Talks Progressing, Calls Hormuz Fees Unacceptable

US President Donald Trump said Wednesday negotiations with Iran are advancing and warned that any fees on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz would be "unacceptable."Trump made the remarks speaking alongside Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House."We're doing great in our negotiations with Iran," Trump said, expressing confidence in ongoing talks with Tehran and dismissing suggestions that recent political developments could affect the discussions.Asked whether he would support an agreement that imposed fees on vessels using the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, "It would be unacceptable," arguing that similar charges could encourage other countries to follow suit.Discussing the Iran conflict, Trump said the US did not receive the level of support it expected from allies, adding that while the US did not need help, it would have been "nice" if partners had offered assistance.Trump also credited Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Chinese President Xi Jinping for staying out of the Iran conflict. He said both leaders honored his requests to avoid involvement, helping prevent a broader regional escalation.Trump said he has directed the Department of Justice to examine fuel pricing practices at major energy companies alleging price gouging by oil firms. He noted that retail gasoline prices have not fallen in line with declines in crude oil markets.He pointed to several energy majors including Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), Shell (SHEL), BP (BP), among others. "... the gasoline or the oil prices have come down so much, and we are not seeing anything at the pump by comparison," Trump said.Trump said, "...we should be, in my opinion, at $2.25 right now at the pump, and we're higher than that, and we are doing a big investigation on it."He alleged that the companies are "possibly gouging," and warned, "I hope they're not. Otherwise, they're going to be in big trouble."The US President said about 19 million barrels of oil moved through global markets the previous day, describing the volume as "a flood" and citing it as evidence of strong supply conditions.Turning to UK energy policy, Trump urged British leaders to expand North Sea oil development and argued the country is failing to capitalize on a major resource opportunity. "You have the greatest oil field in the world, one of them, it's called the North Sea oil," Trump said.

$BP$CVX$SHEL$XOM
Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Plunges as More Oil Tankers Exit Strait of Hormuz

Crude oil futures plunged in after-hours trading on Wednesday, extending their decline to pre-war levels, as a resumption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and progress in US-Iran peace talks eased fears of a prolonged supply disruption in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures tumbled 4.3% to $70.05 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 4.9% to $73.32/bbl.Saxo Bank analysts said Brent crude slipped below $77/bbl, leaving prices less than 10% above pre-war levels, as tanker traffic through the Strait continues to normalize.US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.1 million barrels to 412.1 mmbbls in the week ended June 19, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.Fuel inventories rose, with gasoline stocks rising by 2.1 million barrels last week, while distillate increased by 3.1 million barrels, the agency said.Gelber & Associates said the selloff in crude markets comes despite a supportive US inventory print, with commercial crude stocks drawing 6.1 mmbbls last week, as product builds and demand concerns kept the bullish impact limited.Meanwhile, the latest data from Kpler show that at least 20 oil tankers carrying 35 million barrels of oil have been stranded in the Persian Gulf, with 15 of them exiting the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran agreed to open the strategic waterway.More commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler strategists saying the Strait appears operational under the US-Iran MoU, but dark-route activity and uncertainty beyond the 60-day window keep the recovery cautious.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.Oman said it would keep the Hormuz open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes, north and south of the existing shipping lane, to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.The International Maritime Organization also said on Tuesday it had received safety guarantees allowing hundreds of ships to exit the Persian Gulf.

Oil & Energy

Wright Says Shipping Flow Through Hormuz is Near Normal, Highlights Record US Oil Output

Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz have reached about 20 million barrels per day as shipping activity recovers following the interim US-Iran agreement, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said Wednesday at a Reuters Global Energy Forum event."I could say roughly 72 ships in the last 24 hours, and 20 million barrels of oil, 19 million barrels of oil the day before," Wright said, according to a transcript of the event.He noted that oil and shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has recovered from recent disruptions, with "normal flows" through the Strait at present. "So, flow of oil out of the Arabian Gulf today is higher than it was before the conflict," Wright said.Iranian mines remain the main obstacle to fully restoring shipping routes, Wright said, estimating that demining operations are "probably a few weeks' effort" while noting that energy supplies and critical materials already have viable export pathways.Asked about the future security of the Strait of Hormuz and the possibility of fees being imposed on vessels, Wright expressed confidence that Iran can no longer use the waterway as leverage."... Iran will not have the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz going forward," Wright said.He instead suggested an alternative solution. "The better solution is to have an agreement with the Iranians where they get some benefit, and we get a more permanent end to their nuclear program," Wright added.On the recent sanctions waiver, Wright said it means that Iran can now sell crude at "multiple places" and can be paid in dollars. Before the waiver, Iran mostly sold crude to China."It's a plus for Iran, but I would say it's not a giant plus. We haven't unfrozen any funds, they haven't got anything meaningful yet," Wright said.Wright said the administration approved about 80 million metric tons per annum of new liquefied natural gas export capacity, advanced federal lease sales and accelerated nuclear development.He said two advanced reactors recently reached criticality, the first such milestone in more than 40 years, with another expected before July 4.Long-term energy demand remains firmly supported by global living standards, Wright said. He noted that about 1 billion people consume roughly 13 barrels of oil per person annually, while the remaining 7 billion consume about three barrels each.Wright attributed recent oil-price resilience to stronger supply growth and a more supportive stance toward energy producers, noting that US oil production remains at record levels. "The United States, for the last two months, is the number one exporter of oil in the world," Wright said.The Strategic Petroleum Reserve swap program will return more crude than it releases, Wright said."The swaps we've done so far average 1.28 barrels back for every one barrel we've released," Wright said, adding that the reserve will end up with 35 million to 40 million more barrels than it had when the program began.Wright said policy changes and cooperation with Venezuelan authorities have already doubled the country's oil exports.He added that exports could double again during the current administration, pushing shipments above 2 million barrels a day.Defending the administration's stance on renewable energy subsidies, Wright argued that power markets should reward reliability rather than intermittent generation. "After 35 years of subsidies, you got to walk on your own," Wright said.Wright also backed keeping existing coal plants online while adding nuclear, natural gas, geothermal and other generation sources to meet rising demand from artificial intelligence and data centers.The US Department of Energy did not immediately respond to' request for comment.