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US Natural Gas Update: Prices Weaken on Reduced Demand Forecasts

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US natural gas futures extended losses in after-hours trading on Monday as forecasts for milder weather later this month reduced expectations for cooling demand.

The front-month Henry Hub contract, along with the continuous contract, fell by 2.69% to $3.142 per million British thermal units.

Prices weakened after updated US weather forecasts pointed to cooler conditions across much of the country during the second half of June, potentially curbing natural gas demand from electricity generators supplying air-conditioning load. Barchart reported that forecaster Vaisala on Monday revised its outlook cooler for the eastern two-thirds of the United States during June 13-17, while forecasts for June 18-22 also trended cooler.

Weather models removed more than 10 cooling degree days from forecasts compared with Friday's outlook, according to Aegis Hedging, citing Criterion data.

Lower-48 natural gas demand stood at 72.4 Bcf/d on Monday, up 1.8 Bcf/d from the previous day and 8.7% higher than a year earlier, according to BNEF. Near-term cooling demand is expected to increase through the week as temperatures rise along the US East Coast before moderating later in the month.

Celsius Energy estimated Monday power-sector gas consumption, or power burn, at 23.6 Bcf, down 0.2 Bcf from Sunday but 0.1 Bcf higher than the same day last year.

Aegis Hedging said bearish weather revisions outweighed signs of strengthening LNG demand. US LNG feedgas deliveries increased after Cameron LNG completed planned maintenance at its export facility.

Estimated net flows to US LNG export terminals reached 17.6 Bcf/d on Monday, up 0.4 Bcf/d from Friday and 4.0% higher week over week.

Aegis also noted that industry estimates suggest 2026 could see the lowest volume of LNG project final investment decisions since 2020, underscoring challenges facing new export developments despite strong global LNG demand. Rising material and labor costs continue to weigh on project economics, the firm said.

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