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US Natural Gas Update: Prices Mixed as Forecast Heat Battles Ample Supply

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US natural gas futures eased in midday trading on Friday despite firming LNG demand and supportive weather outlooks, with trade instead focused on near-term steady high production and the recent inventory levels in line with seasonal norms.

Both the continuous Henry Hub contract and the front-month July 2026 Henry Hub contract fell by 0.39% on their last day of trading to $3.33 per million British thermal units. The August contract rose by 1.37% to $3.34/MMBtu.

Supply fundamentals weighed on near-term sentiment. Market participants continued to flag US output holding near 110 billion cubic feet per day, with inventories described as broadly aligned with the five-year average, muting the impact of otherwise supportive demand signals.

Storage data added pressure. The latest weekly natural gas storage report from the US Energy Information Administration showed a 76 Bcf injection for the week ended June 19, above expectations for a 67 Bcf build according to data compiled by Investing.com.

The print followed a 73 Bcf build in the prior week and compared with a 96 Bcf injection in the same period a year earlier. While smaller than the previous year, NRG noted the inventory build was quite a bit above expectations. The increase was also broadly in line with the five-year average of 75 Bcf.

LNG feedgas flows strengthened over the past few weeks, with Friday volumes at 19.13 Bcf versus a 30-day average of 18.21 Bcf, as maintenance-related disruptions across key facilities continued to normalize.

Weather models are also skewed bullish. The National Weather Service projected that more than two-thirds of the US will see above-normal temperatures from July 3-9, raising expectations for stronger cooling load.

Power sector consumption is expected to climb into the mid-40s Bcf/d next week on heat-driven demand, according to NRG Energy.

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