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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise as Warmer Forecasts, Strong LNG Demand Offset Robust Supply

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US natural gas futures rose in midday trade on Wednesday as warmer weather forecasts and strong liquefied natural gas feedgas demand helped offset robust production and ample supplies.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract were both up 1.37% at $2.805 per million British thermal units.

Aegis Hedging said temperatures across the US had increased by about 3.2 degrees Fahrenheit over the forecast period, with modest warming expected in areas east of the Rockies.

Power burn held at 49.1 billion cubic feet per day, while LNG feedgas demand rose to 18.6 Bcf/d, allowing the market to absorb much of the available supply without producing a sharply loose daily balance.

"The warmer turn in the forecast has helped prices recover, but the upside remains measured because production continues to sit near record territory and leaves little room for demand to weaken," Gelber & Associates said.

Aegis said Sabine Pass accounted for much of the increase in LNG feedgas demand, with flows there rising by about 700 million cubic feet per day.

A planned Creole Trail pipeline outage from Aug. 25-28 is expected to reduce gas flows to Sabine Pass by roughly 150 MMcf/d. Freeport LNG is also expected to return to normal operating rates in late August.

On the supply side, US natural gas production remained elevated at 111.5 Bcf/d, while Canadian imports stood at 5.6 Bcf/d, putting total current supply at 117.2 Bcf/d, G&A said.

Looking further ahead, the US Energy Information Administration said Wednesday that US natural gas production is expected to reach a record 122.5 Bcf/d in 2026, up from 118.5 Bcf/d in 2025.

First-half output averaged 121.3 Bcf/d, up 4% from a year earlier, led by production growth in the Permian and Haynesville regions, according to the EIA. Permian production is forecast at 29.2 Bcf/d, up 6%, with much of the increase coming from gas produced alongside crude oil.

Market attention is now turning to the EIA's weekly storage report due Thursday. G&A expects an injection of 26 Bcf for the week ended Aug. 7, well below the 56 Bcf added during the same week last year.

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