FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Tightened Supply, Strong Late-Summer Demand Forecasts

By

US natural gas futures retraced gains in midday trading Tuesday but remained positive as forecasts pointed to persistent late-summer heat and slower production, tightening the market's starting balance.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose 0.35% to $2.906 per million British thermal units.

While gas supplies remained ample, production fell to a two-week low of 111.4 Bcf/d Tuesday, according to Gelber & Associates.

Canadian imports also remained subdued at 4.5 Bcf/d, putting total supply near 116 Bcf/d and giving the market a tighter starting point than recent production highs would suggest.

"The decline is not yet large or persistent enough to signal a lasting change in the supply trend, but it is supporting prices alongside the warmer forecast," Gelber & Associates said.

Aegis Hedging, citing Criterion data, said the weather forecast was unchanged early Tuesday, with temperatures gaining 3 degrees Fahrenheit over the forecast period.

Temperatures are trending back toward the 10-year average in the back half of the outlook, Aegis said, noting that the week ending Sept. 25 is expected to warm by roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, extending some cooling demand into late September.

On the export side, US LNG feedgas demand fell by nearly 800 million cubic feet per day Tuesday to 18.8 Bcf/d, led by a decline of more than 500 MMcf/d at Cameron LNG, Aegis Hedging said.

Maintenance at Cove Point's Pleasant Valley facility is scheduled to begin Sept. 19 and typically lasts about 20 days, according to Aegis.

Despite Tuesday's decline, average flows to the nine major US LNG export facilities have risen to 18.3 Bcf/d so far in September, from 17.2 Bcf/d in August, Trading Economics said.

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

EPA Finalizes Repeal of 2024 Power Plant Emissions Rules, Proposes Scrapping Remaining Standards

The US Environmental Protection Agency on Monday finalized the repeal of most Biden-era greenhouse gas standards for power plants and proposed rescinding all remaining federal climate rules for the sector.Administrator Lee Zeldin unveiled the repeal at the G20 Energy Abundance Ministerial in Houston, alongside Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and National Energy Dominance Council Executive Director Jarrod Agen.EPA said the final rule would save $310 billion, and the proposed repeal would add another $370 million in compliance-cost savings if adopted.The final rule strikes down most of the 2024 Carbon Pollution Standards, which required power plants to use emissions-control technology EPA now says was not "adequately demonstrated" and exceeded the agency's authority under the Clean Air Act.EPA cited the Supreme Court's 2022 ruling in West Virginia vs EPA, which limited the agency's authority to reshape the power sector's fuel mix.The broader proposal would go further, eliminating remaining greenhouse gas rules for power plants entirely.EPA said that after the repeal of the 2009 Endangerment Finding and the Supreme Court's Loper Bright decision overturning Chevron deference, the Clean Air Act does not authorize it to regulate power-plant emissions on climate grounds.The agency also said potential public health harms from the plants' emissions are too diffuse to justify federal regulation.Zeldin said the rules would lower electricity prices and expand coal and natural gas use, calling the 2024 standards part of a "war on coal" by prior administrations."Americans will see a decrease in electricity prices, but this is just the beginning," Zeldin noted.Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the change would support baseload power generation."Today's announcement will help ensure reliable electricity generation regardless of whether the wind is blowing or the sun is shining by allowing coal and natural gas plants to keep generating power when Americans need it most," Wright said.EPA projects coal use for power generation could increase more than tenfold as a result of the rule changes, which it frames as part of a broader push for US "energy dominance."The proposed repeal will be subject to a public hearing 15 days after publication in the Federal Register, followed by a 45-day public comment period.America's Power, a trade association representing coal-fired power plants, welcomed the move. President and Chief Executive Officer Michelle Bloodworth said the repeal would help preserve the coal fleet."Overturning these examples of EPA overreach will help preserve and strengthen the US coal fleet, protect grid reliability, and shield electricity consumers from higher costs at a time of surging demand from data centers, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing," Bloodworth said.She said the rules being repealed would have threatened the retirement of over 170 coal plants across 37 states, and cited EPA's estimate that utilities and ratepayers will save roughly $1.2 billion a year as a result.

Commodities

US Treasury Amends Venezuela License to Block Citgo Governance Changes

The US Treasury Department on Monday amended a Venezuela-related license to prevent unauthorized changes to Citgo Petroleum's governance and that of its US parent companies.The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control said the revised license authorizes certain transactions involving Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, and entities in which it holds a direct or indirect 50% or greater interest.The measure covers Citgo Petroleum, PDV Holding and Citgo Holding, placing limits on corporate governance actions involving the companies under the amended authorization.The amended license restricts the appointment, removal or replacement of directors, officers and other corporate governance officials at Citgo and its US parent companies.The action comes as Venezuela's interim President Delcy Rodriguez seeks greater control over the country's overseas assets after Washington formally recognized her government and as Caracas changes law firms handling foreign court cases, according to a Reuters report.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Climb on Demand Outlook and Crude

US natural gas futures pared gains in after-hours trading Monday but remained higher on crude gains and strong domestic demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose by 1.87% to $2.884 per million British thermal units.Oil prices rose Monday after attacks disrupted a key Saudi oil pipeline, while Houthi militants in Yemen tightened their control over the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, intensifying pressure on Middle East crude-export routes already strained by the US-Iran conflict.In the US, warmer weather forecasts for the second half of September also supported prices. Temperature outlooks trended hotter over the weekend, adding significant population-weighted cooling degree days for the coming week, Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.While late-September heat is less impactful on national energy demand than the extreme temperatures seen earlier this month, current forecasts point to elevated power burn persisting through month-end. Gelber & Associates said it expects the late cooling demand would further constrain storage builds, effectively taking 4.0 Tcf off the table and reducing the odds of inventories surpassing 3.9 Tcf before winter.Strong demand for LNG feedgas also helped keep prices up. Flows reached a fresh two-week high of 19.8 Bcf/d as deliveries recovered at the Freeport and Golden Pass LNG facilities, Gelber said. Aegis Hedging said commissioning activity at Golden Pass remained choppy, potentially signaling a slower ramp-up for additional trains at the facility.Supplies also supported higher prices, with Canadian imports falling to a two-week low of 4.2 Bcf/d and pulling total supply down to 117.4 Bcf/d, Gelber & Associates said adding that the decline in imported supply is becoming increasingly significant as warmer weather revisions across the Midwest, South Central and Northeast are expected to sustain cooling demand over the coming week.Average gas output across the Lower 48 states fell to a two-week low on Friday, Trading Economics said, but rebounded on Monday to 114.4 Bcf/d, Barchart said, citing BNEF data, a 5.2% increase over production this time last year.