FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Hotter US Weather Forecasts

By

Natural gas futures pared gains in after-hours trading Friday but ended the day higher as forecasts shifted hotter across parts of the US, supporting near-term demand expectations.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose 0.89% to $2.939 per million British thermal units.

The October 2026 NYMEX contract moved closer to $3.00/MMBtu in early trade as weather forecasts turned warmer, but ample supply continued to cap gains and caused prices to retrace gains late in the trading day, Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.

Barchart, citing weather forecaster Vaisala, said forecasts turned warmer across the western half of the US for Sept. 9-13 and trended slightly hotter across the central and southern US for Sept. 14-18.

US demand was estimated at 80.6 billion cubic feet per day Friday, up 7.3% from a year earlier, BNEF data showed. Pinebrook said widespread late-summer heat was driving power-sector gas demand to nearly 50 Bcf/d, well above year-ago levels.

Estimated LNG net flows to export terminals were 19.1 Bcf/d Friday, down 1.8% from a week earlier, BNEF said. Firm demand from LNG export facilities nevertheless supported the market.

LNG feedgas flows were nearing a two-week high, Gelber & Associates said. Corpus Christi Stage 3, which is operating at commercial rates, also raised the potential ceiling for winter LNG feedgas demand, the firm said.

On the supply side, natural gas production was estimated at 114.3 Bcf/d, up 5.1% from a year earlier, according to BNEF. Trading Economics said output averaged a record 111.5 Bcf/d in August, up from 110.7 Bcf/d in July, keeping the market well supplied and limiting upside potential for prices.

The latest US Energy Information Administration storage report showed utilities injected 30 Bcf of natural gas into storage during the week ended Aug. 28, the largest weekly build in three weeks.

Working gas in storage stood at 3,214 Bcf, down 50 Bcf, or 1.8%, from the same period last year but 160 Bcf, or 5.2%, above the five-year average, the EIA said.

Related Articles

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall on Ample Supplies as Storage Build Meets Expectations

US natural gas futures trimmed some losses in after-hours trading Thursday after weekly storage data broadly met expectations, while strong production and a well-supplied market continued to weigh on prices.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both fell by 1.05% to $2.925 per million British thermal units.Futures briefly traded above $3.00/MMBtu in overnight trading before retreating ahead of the release of the US Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report.The EIA reported a 30 billion cubic feet injection into underground storage for the week ended Aug. 28, broadly in line with market expectations. Prices fell sharply following the report, reaching $2.885/MMBtu before partially recovering.The latest build was well below the 45 Bcf injection recorded during the same week last year and the five-year average of 37 Bcf, leaving the underlying storage picture relatively supportive despite the immediate price decline, Gelber & Associates said.Working gas in storage stood at 3,214 Bcf as of Aug. 28, down 50 Bcf, or 1.8%, from year-earlier levels and 160 Bcf, or 5.2%, above the five-year average, EIA said.Pinebrook Energy Advisors said the surplus to the five-year average had narrowed to 160 Bcf from 198 Bcf, while the deficit versus 2025 had widened to 50 Bcf from 12 Bcf as of July 31.The smaller-than-normal injection was attributed to elevated demand amid persistent high temperatures across the southern and central US.Weather is expected to remain supportive for demand through mid-September, NRG Energy said, with above-normal temperatures forecast across much of the Midwest, Plains and eastern half of the country. Heat intensity is expected to moderate gradually toward the latter part of the outlook.Total demand for Thursday declined 0.5 Bcf/d to 110.9 Bcf/d, driven by lower power burn demand despite broader late-summer warmth, NRG said.LNG feedgas demand also strengthened, led by higher flows to Sabine Pass and Golden Pass, Aegis Hedging said. Sabine Pass feedgas volumes increased by 306 million cubic feet per day to 4.19 Bcf/d, while Golden Pass flows rose by 290 MMcf/d to 566 MMcf/d. Overall LNG feedgas demand remained firm at around 19.1 Bcf/d, Gelber & Associates said.Average gas flows to the nine major US LNG export plants increased to 18.3 Bcf/d in early September from 17.2 Bcf/d in August, Trading Economics said, as Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi facility and Freeport LNG in Texas returned to full operations following maintenance.US LNG exports rose 23% in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier, their fastest rate of growth since 2016, as new terminals and expansions increased export capacity, RBC Capital Markets analysts said.Golden Pass LNG has continued an uneven ramp-up that began in the spring, while the seventh and final train of the Corpus Christi Stage 3 project reached substantial completion Aug. 28.Those developments are expected to lift total US LNG export capacity to around 20 Bcf/d by the end of 2026, RBC said.Meanwhile, US natural gas production has rose to 111.8 Bcf/d, with expanded Permian takeaway capacity allowing more West Texas supply to reach downstream markets, Gelber & Associates said. NRG data showed dry gas production increased 0.9 Bcf/d to 110.2 Bcf/d Thursday.Trading Economics said Lower 48 production averaged a record 111.5 Bcf/d in August, up from 110.7 Bcf/d in July, and that rising output is keeping the market well supplied and limiting the upside potential for prices.

Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Mostly Higher Thursday Afternoon as Natural Gas Leads Generation

US wholesale electricity prices were mostly higher Thursday afternoon, with natural gas leading generation in most markets while solar dominated California output, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $43.39 per megawatt-hour at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 52.47 gigawatts, with natural gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 45.7%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came in at $41.93/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load turned negative, hitting -0.65 GW, with solar leading the generation mix at 69.7%.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP was $37.85/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 45.97 GW, with natural gas accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 41.6%. Prices surged to an intraday high of $254.11/MWh at 9:30 a.m. ET.PJM Interconnection's real-time LMP reached $62/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 130.56 GW, with gas supplying the largest share of the generation mix at 43.1%. Prices climbed to an intraday high of $123.29/MWh at 3:15 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came to $41.74/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 88.45 GW, with natural gas making up the largest share of the generation mix at 33%.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $65.76/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 22.61 GW, with dual fuel accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 33.8%.ISO New England's real-time LMP stood at $48.21/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 14.82 GW, with natural gas leading the generation mix at 56.4%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP was $184.56/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 21.93 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 40.5%. Prices reached an intraday high of $191.04/MWh at 4:05 p.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts temperatures to remain above normal across much of the central and eastern US from Sep. 11 to Sep. 17, with near-normal readings across much of the West.

Commodities

US Exports of Soybean Oil, Biodiesel Up in July, Ethanol Drops, US Census Bureau Says

US soybean oil and biodiesel exports rose in July compared to June, while ethanol exports fell, the US Census Bureau reported on Thursday.In July, ethanol exports totaled 199.5 million gallons, down from 206.1 million gallons in June and up from 169.4 million gallons a year ago. Canada was the biggest buyer of US ethanol, followed by the Netherlands, Vietnam, the UK, and South Korea.US biodiesel exports totaled 35,517 metric tons in July, up from 34,507 mt in June and down from 43,232 a year ago. Shipments of biodiesel went mostly to Canada, Peru, Germany, Indonesia, and the Czech Republic.US soybean oil exports totaled 9,784 mt in July, up from 9,319 mt in June and down sharply from 29,102 mt a year ago. Mexico, Canada, Cuba, Panama, and the Bahamas were the biggest buyers.