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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise on Eastern Heat Wave, Reduced Output

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US natural gas futures advanced in midday trading on Tuesday as forecasts for above-normal temperatures across much of the country lifted expectations for stronger power-sector demand, even as production levels fell.

The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both rose 2.84% to $3.11 per million British thermal units.

NatGasWeather.com said cooling demand is expected to remain moderate over the next few days before easing to light thereafter.

It noted that record-high temperatures are impacting the East Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday, with highs in the lower to mid-90 degrees Fahrenheit supporting early-season air-conditioning load forecasts.

A colder weather system moving across the Midwest into the East in the coming days is expected to temper temperatures and reduce demand, according to NatGasWeather.com.

On the supply side, NRG Energy said US natural gas production fell by 1.2 billion cubic feet per day to 106.1 Bcf/d on Tuesday, a move Trading Economics attributed to producers cutting output due to persistently weak pricing.

NRG said demand was mixed across segments. Residential and commercial consumption rose by 1 Bcf/d to 11.3 Bcf/d, while industrial demand increased 0.3 Bcf/d to 21.8 Bcf/d. Power burn, however, edged down 0.2 Bcf/d to 35.7 Bcf/d, though it remained elevated following recent heat-driven gains as warmer conditions shift eastward and support cooling demand.

"Texas continues to face modest demands and ample wind output holding prices in ERCOT in check as we approach summer," Tradition Energy's Gary Cunningham said, adding that wind and solar have combined to provide around 60% of ERCOT's demand during the middle of the day every day for the past week.

On the export side, LNG feedgas was estimated at 14.6 Bcf/d, down 1.7 Bcf/d from the prior day and below the 2026 average of 18.2 Bcf/d, with ongoing maintenance at LNG facilities continuing to weigh on utilization, NRG said.

Trading Economics reported that total US LNG flows have eased from a record 18.8 Bcf/d average in April to about 17 Bcf/d so far in May, reflecting seasonal maintenance at Freeport LNG and Golden Pass.

It also noted reports that three US LNG cargoes are expected to arrive in China in June, marking the first such shipments since February 2025.

Gas flows into Mexico remain strong but slightly below last year's levels as the weather in northern Mexico is currently mild, Cunningham said.

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