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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Amid Enduring Summer Heat, Dip in Domestic Output

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US natural gas futures edged higher on Monday as persistent summer temperatures and a dip in domestic production kept prices elevated.

Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose by 1.37% to $2.811 per million British thermal units.

Temperatures are expected to remain near record levels across most of the Southwest and Texas over the next five days, according to NRG Energy.

Power demand in Texas is set to remain elevated with the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, expecting peak daily demand from Friday through Tuesday to exceed its previous record set in July.

Near-term forecasts, however, turned bearish, with the Northeast and Northwestern parts of the country expected to see near-normal temperatures from Aug. 31 through Sept. 6, according to the National Weather Service, easing cooling gas demand.

This intersected with a dip in domestic gas output, which is now below 112 billion cubic feet per day, while gas-fired power burn also continued its decline, touching 45.5 Bcf/d over the weekend, down from a high of 53 Bcf/d during the week.

LNG export feedgas flows were expected at 17.22 Bcf/d on Monday, compared to the 30-day moving average of 17.85 Bcf/d, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model.

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US Power Update: Prices Vary Across Markets as Natural Gas Dominates Generation

US power markets showed varied prices on Friday, with natural gas leading generation across most regions while several markets posted sharp intraday price spikes, according to data from GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price stood at $22.08 per megawatt-hour at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 51.82 gigawatts, with natural gas leading the generation mix at 41.3%.California Independent System Operator recorded a real-time LMP of $13.53/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load came in at 6.86 GW, while solar led the generation mix at 55.9%. An intraday peak of $76.98/MWh was recorded at 4 a.m. ET.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP was $31.61/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load stood at 45.08 GW, with natural gas making up the largest share of generation at 43.3%.PJM posted a real-time LMP of $33.47/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 110.95 GW, while gas accounted for the largest share of the generation mix at 45.2%. Prices surged to an intraday high of $135.68/MWh at 4:05 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP came to $31.26/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 85.85 GW, with natural gas holding the largest generation share at 34.1%. Prices reached $91.42/MWh at 11:35 a.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator recorded a real-time LMP of $35.59/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 18.68 GW, with natural gas representing the largest generation share at 30.5%.ISO New England's real-time LMP stood at $32.78/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 13.02 GW, with natural gas accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 48.9%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP reached $65.57/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 19.52 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear supplying the largest share of generation at 44%. The intraday high stood at $125.19/MWh at 3:55 p.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts temperatures to stay above normal across much of the West, South and central US from Aug. 29-Sept. 4, with near-normal readings in parts of the Northeast and West Coast.Monitoring Analytics, PJM's independent market monitor, said in its Quarterly State of the Market Report for PJM that the grid operator often underestimates available transmission capacity, leading to incorrect penalty charges about 94% of the time.During the first half of 2026, high-voltage 500-kilovolt transmission lines reached or exceeded operating limits in 8,920 five-minute periods, up from 1,865 a year earlier, with most violations occurring during a winter storm, the market monitor said.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Rise on Hotter Forecasts for the South and West

US natural gas prices pared gains in after-hours trading on Friday but ended the session in positive territory as forecasts for hotter weather raised expectations for stronger gas-fired power generation and increased air-conditioning demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose by 0.80% to $2.755 per million British thermal units.The Commodity Weather Group said Friday that forecasts had shifted hotter, with above-average temperatures expected across Texas, the Southwest and the Interior West through Sept. 4.The expected heatwave caused the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, or ERCOT, the state's largest power grid operator, to forecast that electricity demand from Friday through Tuesday would exceed its all-time record set in July.Overall, US electricity generation also remained above year-ago levels. The Edison Electric Institute said Lower 48 electricity output in the week ended Aug. 15 rose 2.36% from a year earlier to 101,498 GWh. Output over the 52 weeks ended Aug. 15 increased 2.24% year on year to 4,359,446 GWh.At the same time, strong domestic gas production continued to weigh on the market. Barchart, citing BNEF data, estimated Lower 48 dry gas production at 113.1 Bcf/d on Friday, up 4.4% from a year earlier. Lower 48 state gas demand was estimated at 80.9 Bcf/d, 2.7% higher year on year.Net gas flows to US LNG export terminals were estimated at 17.7 Bcf/d, down 2.6% from a week earlier. Trading Key said export demand remains limited due to a maintenance turnaround at Freeport LNG and slow capacity ramp-ups at Golden Pass.The Energy Buyers' Report said the market's fundamental backdrop remained relatively soft despite Friday's rebound, with inventories still at healthy levels and cooling demand gradually losing seasonal support.The latest data from the US Energy Information Administration showed utilities added 16 Bcf to underground storage in the latest week, below both the 19 Bcf injection a year earlier and the five-year average injection of 29 Bcf.Total working gas in storage stood at 3,169 Bcf, down 28 Bcf, or 0.9%, from year-ago levels but 185 Bcf, or 6.2%, above the five-year average for the same week.

Commodities

Market Chatter: India Reportedly Pays Highest LNG Spot Prices in Years as Iran War Disrupts Supplies

Indian energy companies are paying some of their highest spot-market prices for liquefied natural gas in years as the war in Iran disrupts global supplies, Bloomberg reported on Friday.State-run GAIL India Ltd. reportedly paid more than $23 per million British thermal units for a September cargo, while Gujarat State Petroleum Corp. paid in the mid-$23 range.The prices are the highest for Indian LNG imports since 2022. State-backed buyers are turning to the spot market as the government supports domestic fertilizer producers which use natural gas.GAIL and Gujarat State Petroleum did not immediately respond to requests for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)