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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall on Oversupply Fears Ahead of EIA Data

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US natural gas futures maintained earlier losses in after-hours trading on Wednesday as concerns mounted that domestic storage levels will post another outsized build, underscoring an already oversupplied market.

Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract declined 1.64% to $2.647 per million British thermal units.

Market expectations ahead of Thursday's Energy Information Administration natural gas storage report center on an injection of 79-84 billion cubic feet, well above the five-year average increase of 63 Bcf for this time of year. Inventories are already elevated, running 7.1% above the five-year average as of Apr. 17, suggesting any above-normal build would further widen the surplus.

Price declines were partially limited by forecasts for below-normal temperatures, which could support heating demand. Commodity Weather Group said Wednesday that cooler-than-average conditions are expected across the eastern two-thirds of the US through May 3.

Even so, market sentiment remains cautious. Gelber & Associates said the new prompt month is trading with a restrained tone, citing a patchwork weather pattern that is keeping regional demand uneven and limiting conviction on either side of the market, despite the colder forecast.

On the supply front, production is holding modestly below early-2026 peaks. Barchart, citing BNEF data, reported output at 109.9 Bcf/d, up 2.9% from a year earlier, while demand was 73.8 Bcf/d, a 12.5% increase year-over-year.

LNG feedgas demand continues to provide underlying support, running near seasonal highs amid strong global demand for US exports and continued ramp-up at newer export facilities. BNEF data showed LNG feedgas flows at 19.1 Bcf/d, up 4.2% on the week.

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