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US Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher on Weather Outlook, Mixed Fundamentals

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US natural gas futures rose in midday trading on Wednesday, supported by forecasts of above-average temperatures at the end of June and early July, alongside some tightening in near-term fundamentals.

Both the Henry Hub front-month contract and the continuous futures benchmark were up 1.72% at $3.201 per million British thermal units.

Liquidity Energy said momentum indicators remain in neutral territory, underscoring the absence of a clear directional trend. It added that price action continues to orbit the 20-day moving average, with neither buyers nor sellers maintaining sustained control.

On weather, Trading Economics noted expectations of cooler-than-average temperatures across Eastern population centers in the near term. It added that air-conditioning demand is likely to be reduced between June 23 and June 27 as a result.

However, Aegis Hedging said prices were supported by forecasts indicating that population-weighted temperatures will rise above the 10-year average next week and remain elevated into early July.

On demand, NRG Energy said power burn for June is running 0.7 billion cubic feet per day below the same month last year, a factor it said has contributed to recent bearish pressure, while noting that overall demand trends remain higher.

NRG also said LNG feedgas has averaged 18 Bcf/d year-to-date, with flows expected to remain at or above that level over the next two weeks. It reported Wednesday flows at 41.3 Bcf/d and projected an increase to 45.7 Bcf/d over the 8-14 day period as temperatures rise across the eastern US.

On the supply side, Gelber & Associates said fundamentals remain anchored by domestic production of about 110 Bcf/d, while net Canadian imports have eased to 5.5 Bcf/d, putting total supply at a healthy 115.5 Bcf/d.

It added that broader market commentary still views supply as a constraint on upside, as production recovery and the end of pipeline maintenance restore availability.

NRG Energy said it expects a 64 Bcf injection for the week ending June 19, to be reported Thursday by the US Energy Information Administration. That would leave inventories 140 Bcf above the five-year average and 61 Bcf below the same week last year.

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