FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Climb on Rising Cooling Demand, LNG Restart

By

Natural gas futures extended gains in after-hours trading Monday, rising more than 6% as rising cooling demand and the restart of an export terminal tightened market balances.

Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose by 6.31% to $2.931 per million British thermal units.

Cooling demand continued to drive consumption forecasts higher, Gelber & Associates said in a Monday note, adding that updated forecasts raised the 1-15 day temperature outlook by 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit. Aegis Hedging said most of the forecast increase was concentrated in the six- to 10-day period, when average temperatures are expected to exceed 70 degrees Fahrenheit for the first time later this week.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also forecast well-above-normal temperatures across the eastern half of the US for May 18-24.

Gelber said power burn expectations for May increased by another 1 billion cubic feet per day to 33 Bcf/d from the current 32 Bcf/d, while residential and commercial demand is expected to decline to around 14.6 Bcf/d next week.

On the supply side, Trading Economics said a recent decline in US output supported prices, noting that Lower 48 production has trended lower as producers, including EQT, curtailed output amid weak spot prices. Aegis Hedging estimated that 200 million to 400 million cubic feet per day of Permian gas remains shut in because of weak pricing conditions.

Output, however, may be recovering. NRG Energy said production rose over the weekend to 107.5 Bcf/d, up from roughly 106 Bcf/d in recent weeks.

BNEF data showed LNG net flows to US export terminals were 17.7 Bcf/d on Monday, down 0.6% from the previous week.

The weekend restart of an LNG train also helped tighten supplies. Freeport LNG increased natural gas intake on Saturday and Sunday after one of its three liquefaction trains shut on Friday because of a compressor issue, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. Gas flows to the plant fell to 1.4 Bcf/d on May 8 before recovering to about 1.9 Bcf/d between May 9 and May 11, roughly in line with the previous week's average.

Vortexa said US LNG exports remained steady despite scheduled maintenance at the Cameron and Corpus Christi terminals. Total US export volumes reached 2.5 million metric tons, or 36 cargoes, in line with the four-week average.

Related Articles

Commodities

Hawaiian Electric Q1 Power Sales Edge Higher, Expands Grid Investment Plans

Hawaiian Electric Industries (HE) reported Q1 earnings on Friday, showing total electricity sales of 1,972 GWh, compared with 1,965 GWh a year earlier.The company reported Hawaiian Electric sales rose to 1,457 GWh for the quarter ended Mar. 31, up from 1,453 GWh a year earlier.Electricity sales for Hawaii Electric Light were 258 GWh for the quarter, compared with 255 GWh a year earlier.Maui Electric maintained quarterly electricity sales at 257 GWh in Q1, unchanged from a year earlier, according to Hawaiian Electric.Hawaiian Electric secured approval for the Waiau Repower project with a revised estimated cost of about $1.16 billion, compared with the original $847 million estimate submitted earlier in the process.Hawaiian Electric forecast total capital expenditures of $625 million to $750 million in 2026, compared with $368 million in 2025, as the utility expands wildfire safety and grid modernization programs.

$HE
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Soften on Slower LNG Exports

US natural gas futures prices extended losses in after-hours trade on Friday amid slower feedgas flows to LNG terminals, after earlier gains following US government data showing a smaller-than-expected inventory build.Both the front-month Henry Hub futures contract and the continuous contract edged down by 0.69% to $2.75 per million British thermal units.Prices dipped as less natural gas was used in the export system, leaving more floating around in the domestic US.Feedgas flows to LNG export terminals slowed by 4.6% from last week to 17.7 billion cubic feet on Friday, Barchart said, citing BNEF data. LNG feedgas had recently reached peak levels of about 20 Bdf per day but declined due to ongoing maintenance and operational constraints at several terminals, including Corpus Christi, Cameron, and Calcasieu Pass.Some of the deficit was offset by increased flows to the Golden Pass facility as it continues to ramp up and has recently reached record output levels during commissioning, Gelber & Associates said.A total of 30 vessels left the US carrying 115 Bcf in the week ended May 6, down five vessels and 18 Bcf from the previous week, the US Energy Information Administration said.On Thursday, prices rose after the EIA said net injections into storage totaled 63 Bcf for the week ending May 1, below analyst expectations of 72 to 80 Bcf. The build was also significantly smaller than the five-year average of 77 Bcf and last year's net injection of 104 Bcf during the same week.Thursday's total put stocks at 2,205 Bcf, 139 Bcf, or 7% above the five-year average and 75 Bcf, or 4% more than last year at this time.Production was pegged at 110.6 Bcf/d, up nearly 4% from year-ago levels and demand was 0.8% stronger than it was a year ago at 67.5 Bcf/d.

Commodities

Money Managers Uphold Bullish Stance in Biofuels Futures, Options Markets, CFTC Says

Money managers stay bullish or net long in the biofuel futures and options markets, according to the Commodities Futures Trading Commission's weekly Commitments of Traders Report.The weekly COT Report, as of the week ending May 5, showed that money managers are net long, a bet that the market will go higher, in the California Low Carbon Fuel Standard market by 61,602 contracts.The COT report showed that money managers are net long by 467 contracts in the D6 RINS Current Year futures and options markets.In the D4 Biodiesel RINS Current Year futures and options markets, money managers hold a net long position of 3,620.For ethanol, money managers are net long by 6,928 contracts in the futures and options markets.Money managers are net long soybean oil futures and options by 169,142 contracts, after adding 4,000 long positions from a week ago.