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US Crude Stocks Seen Falling as Exports, Refinery Runs Offset Supply Gains, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 1.3-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 8, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 2.3 million barrels draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to increase by about 300,000 barrels per day as seasonal maintenance turnarounds ease. Crude exports are projected to rise modestly by about 400,000 b/d, while imports are expected to dip by 700,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will increase by 300,000 b/d for the week ended May. 8, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 8.6 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 5.8 million bbls, distillate inventories by 4.4 million bbls, while jet fuel stocks are projected to rise by about 900,000 bbls.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.9 mmb/d.

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