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US Natural Gas Production Set to Hit Record in 2026, EIA Says

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US natural gas production is on track to reach a record in 2026 as strong drilling activity in the Permian and Haynesville regions boosts output, the Energy Information Administration strategists said on Wednesday.

The EIA analysts said in its August Short-Term Energy Outlook that marketed natural gas production is forecast to average 122.5 billion cubic feet per day this year, surpassing the previous record of 118.5 Bcf/d set in 2025.

Production averaged 121.3 Bcf/d in H1 2026, up 4%, or 4.6 Bcf/d, from the same period a year ago, with most of the increase concentrated in the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico and the Haynesville region of Louisiana and Texas.

The US was the world's largest natural gas producer from 2009 through 2024, the latest year for which global production data is available, the EIA said.

Permian natural gas production is projected to average 29.2 Bcf/d in 2026, up 6% from 2025. Output in the oil-rich basin is driven by associated gas produced alongside crude oil.

Higher oil prices have encouraged producers to maintain oil-directed drilling in the region.

The EIA said that WTI crude averaged $84 per barrel through July 2026, up from $65/bbl in 2025 and above estimated breakeven levels in the Midland and Delaware basins.

The agency said that executives surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported 2026 breakeven prices of about $69/bbl in the Midland Basin and $63 in the Delaware Basin.

The EIA also pointed to a rising gas-to-oil ratio in the Permian as another factor supporting natural gas production.

The agency said that as reservoirs are depleted and pressure declines, natural gas becomes easier to produce relative to oil, increasing the amount of gas recovered alongside crude.

Haynesville production is also expanding rapidly. Natural gas output from the region rose by 1.1 Bcf/d, or 7%, in the first half of 2026 from a year earlier. The EIA expects full-year production to increase 9%, or 1.3 Bcf/d.

The agency said that unlike the Permian, where drilling is primarily driven by crude oil economics, Haynesville producers focus mainly on natural gas, making activity in the region more closely tied to Henry Hub prices.

The EIA forecasts the Henry Hub spot price will average $3.44 per million British thermal units in 2026, down 2%, or 8 cents, from its previous level.

Drilling in the Haynesville, at that price, remains economically viable despite the higher costs associated with wells that can extend from 10,500 to 13,500 feet underground.

The region's location near US Gulf Coast liquefied natural gas export terminals and major industrial consumers is also supporting drilling activity.

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