US LNG shipments fell to 113 cargoes in May from 132 in April as maintenance activity reduced exports from March's record levels, though long-term capacity growth remains intact, RBC Capital Markets said in a Wednesday note.
RBC said May shipments matched levels seen in May 2025, while maintenance programs at several facilities weighed on export volumes during the spring season.
The firm said Golden Pass LNG entered its shipment monitor in April as the newest US export facility and marked another step in the expansion of domestic LNG capacity.
Europe continued to receive the largest share of US LNG cargoes, although Asian demand has strengthened since the Iran conflict disrupted regional energy markets, the note said.
Asian buyers could attract additional cargoes while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, with LNG prices recently reaching about $17 per million British thermal units to $18/MMBtu compared with $15/MMBtu to $16.50/MMBtu in Europe.
RBC said Corpus Christi Stage 3 Trains 6 and 7 are advancing ahead of schedule and delivering production results above initial expectations.
Combined production from Sabine Pass and Corpus Christi facilities, including Corpus Christi Stage 3, should reach 52 million metric tons to 54 million mt in 2026, about 1 million mt above earlier forecasts, according to RBC.
The firm said contracted volumes account for 46 million mt to 47 million mt of that total, while commissioning cargoes contribute about 1 million mt and forward-sold cargoes represent less than 5 million mt.
Less than 1 million mt, or under 50 trillion British thermal units, of capacity remains unsold for 2026, RBC said.
Sabine Pass Trains 1-6 and Corpus Christi Trains 1-3, plus Stage 3 Trains 1-9, are expected to produce 60 million mt to 63 million mt annually when fully operational, according to the note.
RBC said Sabine Pass Train 7 could add 6 million mt to 7 million mt per year, secure all permits by the end of 2026, reach a final investment decision shortly afterward and begin LNG production as early as 2030.
Calcasieu Pass 2 is expected to reach 29 million mt per year of peak capacity when fully ramped, with Phase 1's 20 million-mt capacity targeted to produce first LNG in the second half of 2027, RBC said.
Plaquemines has all 36 trains producing LNG and expects 26 million mt of output in 2026 before reaching 28 million mt of annual peak capacity, with contracts starting in Q4 2026 and mid-2027 for Phases 1 and 2, respectively, RBC said.
Potential expansions at Calcasieu Pass 2 and Plaquemines could add 10 million mt and 6.4 million mt of capacity, respectively, with final investment decisions possible in 2027 and first production targeted for 2028 and 2029, RBC said.