US liquefied natural gas exports are on track to become the country's second-largest net export industry within five years, adding $1.4 trillion to the economy through 2040, S&P Global Energy strategists said in a report on Thursday.
S&P Global, in its Price and Economic Impacts of an Accelerating Export Industry report, projects US LNG feedgas demand to double to 36 billion cubic feet per day over the next five years, as a wave of export projects accelerates capacity growth.
The US is projected to capture over one-third of global LNG trade by 2031, making LNG the nation's second-largest net export industry after civilian aircraft and parts.
The updated outlook reflects a sharp increase in investment following the end of the permitting pause, with seven LNG projects reaching final investment decisions since early 2025 and several more expected over the coming year.
S&P estimates cumulative investment across the US LNG supply chain will exceed $1 trillion by 2040.
The expansion is projected to generate $2.9 trillion in business revenues, contribute $206 billion in federal and state tax receipts and produce about $630 billion in labor income.
What has become a $44 billion annual industry in just the last decade is now poised to be the country's second-largest net export within five years, said Daniel Yergin, vice chairman of S&P Global.
Despite concerns that surging exports could tighten domestic supply, S&P said the impact on US natural gas prices would remain limited because of the country's abundant shale resources and extensive pipeline network.
The consultancy forecasts average end-user natural gas costs will rise by only about 1.6% per household between 2026 and 2031, leaving US gas prices among the world's lowest for residential and industrial consumers.
US domestic gas production has expanded enough to accommodate both rising domestic demand and growing LNG exports, the report said, while flexible export terminals can redirect gas back into the domestic market during peak-demand periods.
S&P said during Winter Storm Fern that as much as 9 billion cubic feet per day of LNG feedgas was redirected to US consumers, helping stabilize supplies during extreme cold weather.
However, the consultancy said that delaying or canceling LNG export projects approved since 2025 would considerably tighten global gas markets.
Under an "extended pause" scenario, LNG prices in Europe and Asia could be about 50% higher by 2031, while as much as $76 billion per year in energy revenues would shift to competing suppliers.
The report showed that Russia would likely emerge as one of the biggest beneficiaries because it retains significant underutilized gas export capacity that could serve European markets if sanctions or market conditions permit increased flows.
Infrastructure remains the biggest constraint to further reducing domestic gas price volatility, particularly in the US Northeast, where pipeline bottlenecks continue to create seasonal price spikes despite abundant national supply.
S&P said expanding pipeline capacity into New England and New York could reduce peak winter natural gas prices by more than 20% between 2028 and 2031.
The US exported about $44 billion of LNG in 2025, making the industry worth more than twice the value of the country's corn exports and nearly three times the value of movie and television exports.