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US, Iran Reach Deal to End Middle East War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz

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US, Iran Reach Deal to End Middle East War, Reopen Strait of Hormuz

FINWIRES Analysis

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz removes a major geopolitical risk premium, explained by the immediate 5%-plus drop in both WTI and Brent crude. The deferral of a final agreement until US commitments are implemented means residual headline risk persists, and the May inflation spike driven by energy underscores how much macro relief hinges on durable de-escalation. Markets should watch the Friday signing and subsequent nuclear-track talks as the real confirmation milestones.

Key Takeaways

  • Hormuz reopening drives crude down over 5%
  • Final deal deferred, residual headline risk remains
  • Energy-led May inflation makes de-escalation macro-critical

The US and Iran have reached an agreement to end their war and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz after more than three months of conflict that disrupted regional stability and global shipping routes.

"The deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete," President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Sunday. "I hereby fully authorize the toll free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and, simultaneously herewith, authorize the immediate removal of the US Naval blockade."

Trump's post came after Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced on X that a peace deal had been reached between Washington and Tehran, with both sides agreeing to immediately terminate their military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon. The official signing ceremony will take place on Friday in Switzerland, according to Sharif.

"With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week," Sharif said. "These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony."

Pakistan has played a mediating role between the US and Iran.

In a separate post later on Sunday, Trump said the Strait of Hormuz will open upon the signing of the peace deal on Friday, "for purposes of mine removal." The strait has been effectively shut since the end of February, when the US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 5.6% to $80.11 a barrel earlier on Monday, while Brent declined 5.2% to $82.77.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council said a memorandum of understanding called for an immediate and permanent end of all military operations, including in Lebanon, Tehran's semi-official Mehr News Agency reported Monday. The council also said the MoU will be signed on Friday, according to the report.

However, discussions on a final agreement between the two countries will be postponed until after the US has "implemented its commitments" under the MoU, the report added, citing the SNSC secretariat.

The framework paves the way for another round of negotiations on Tehran's nuclear program, Bloomberg News reported.

Israel's strikes on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah have been a contentious issue in US-Iran peace negotiations. Earlier on Sunday, Trump called on Israel and Hezbollah to halt attacks on each other following Israeli strikes on Beirut, as talks edged closer to a deal.

Last week, US government data showed that annual inflation in May accelerated to its highest level in about three years, as the impact of the Iran war weighed on the world's largest economy. Energy prices rose about 24% year over year in May, while gasoline surged 41%, the fastest rise since July 2022, according to the data.

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