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US-Iran Peace Deal Announcement Lifts US Equity Futures Pre-Bell

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FINWIRES Analysis

The risk-on move is textbook geopolitical de-escalation: equities and crude trade inversely, with a 5% Brent drop pricing out the Hormuz war premium while futures rally. The standout is the $2 trillion SpaceX debut, a landmark private-space valuation milestone arriving alongside the peace catalyst. With the Fed expected to hold, the macro calendar takes a back seat to the geopolitical re-rating this session.

Key Takeaways

  • Hormuz reopening drains crude war premium
  • Equities rally as oil sinks ~5%
  • SpaceX debut marks $2T valuation milestone

US equity futures were higher pre-bell Monday as the US and Iran finally reached a long-awaited agreement to end the war, with President Donald Trump saying the Strait of Hormuz would reopen on Friday.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were 1% higher, S&P 500 futures were up 1.3%, and Nasdaq futures were 2.1% higher.

Iran's Supreme National Security Council had confirmed on Sunday that a memorandum of understanding had been finalized, with military operations on all fronts set to cease immediately.

"With the opening of the Strait upon the signing of the Deal on Friday, for purposes of mine removal, oil will flow on both ends again for the Region, and the World!" Trump said in a post on Truth Social.

Shares of Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX), known as SpaceX, rose 5.3% in premarket activity after the company ended Friday with a market capitalization of more than $2 trillion in a record-setting initial public offering. Shares rose as much as 29% on Friday.

Oil prices were lower, with front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent crude down 4.9% at $83.03 per barrel and US West Texas Intermediate crude 5.4% lower at $80.30 per barrel.

Investors also look forward to the Federal Reserve's rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday. Markets expect no rate moves by the central bank.

The June Empire State manufacturing index, scheduled for release at 8:30 am ET, is seen at 13.5 versus 19.6 previously, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The May industrial production report, due at 9:15 am ET, is forecast to show a 0.3% gain following a 0.7% increase in the prior month. The June US housing market index, slated for 10 am ET, is expected at 37, unchanged from the prior month.

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