US intelligence assessments say Iran has the capability to open or close the Strait of Hormuz at will, giving Tehran direct leverage over one of the world's most important energy corridors, CNN reported on Tuesday, citing sources familiar with the findings.
US intelligence assessments conclude Iran now possesses a mix of military and asymmetric tools that can significantly disrupt global energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz, giving Tehran leverage far beyond its conventional military weight.
Iran's toolkit reportedly includes anti-ship missiles, drones, coastal launch systems, and naval mines, along with hundreds of fast attack boats capable of swarming commercial vessels and harassing naval escorts. These assets allow Tehran to create enough risk in the waterway to slow or effectively choke traffic without needing full-scale naval dominance.
US analysts also point to Iran's proven ability to escalate indirectly through strikes on regional energy infrastructure. That expands the threat beyond a single chokepoint to oil production and export facilities across Gulf states, multiplying the potential economic impact.
Iran's leverage is reinforced by its proxy network. The assessment notes that Tehran retains the option of activating Houthi forces in Yemen to threaten the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, another critical passage linking the Red Sea and Indian Ocean. If both chokepoints were disrupted simultaneously, global trade flows would face even greater strain.
Iran had long threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz but had not previously shown it could do so effectively until recent US-led combat operations with Israel. CNN cited multiple sources who said the Trump administration initially believed Iran would avoid closure because it would damage its own economy more than the US, and expected China to restrain Tehran.
As a result, Washington prioritized strikes on Iranian targets over deterring maritime disruption. Days into the conflict, that assumption proved wrong, with officials later assessing Iran acted after interpreting US regime-change rhetoric as an existential threat and escalating deliberately once its intentions were clear.
Despite current diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening maritime traffic, US officials now believe Iran retains both the capability and the incentive to introduce new disruptions if negotiations break down. Shipping analysts say that even in a "reopened" scenario, risk premiums and uncertainty could keep volumes below normal levels.
The intelligence picture also highlights Iran's continued investment in its missile and drone programs and its ability to replenish systems faster than earlier US estimates anticipated.
Neither the White House nor the Office of the Director of National Intelligence immediately responded to requests for comment from.