US gasoline demand hit a five-year high in April, outperforming weekly estimates as consumption growth accelerated despite rising pump prices and a deceleration in vehicle travel, TPH Energy Research said in a Wednesday note.
Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said total product consumption in the US climbed 2.9% over the year in April, up from a 2.2% increase in March.
The figures, compiled by TPH, marked a notable start to Q2, diverging from the sluggish demand trends seen earlier in the year.
The bank said gasoline demand rose 2.4% over the year in April, significantly outpacing the 1% growth recorded in March and sharply reversing the Q1 average decline of 0.9%.
The print exceeded weekly market expectations by 146,000 barrels per day, marking the 22nd consecutive month that gasoline demand has exceeded analyst estimates.
Blair said the gains were achieved despite a significant headwind at the pump, where prices jumped by 46 cents per gallon over the month.
Furthermore, growth in vehicle miles traveled softened to 0.7% in April, down from 1.6% in March and 2.6% in February, TPH said, noting that consumption remained resilient even as driving activity slowed.
Regionally, TPH said robust demand in PADD 2, PADD 1, and PADD 5 provided the primary lift, more than offsetting weakness in PADD 3 and PADD 4.
Distillate demand, which includes diesel and heating oil, remained relatively flat with a 0.1% year-over-year increase in April, barely edging out weekly estimates by 12 million b/d.
Though the April figures exceeded expectations, TPH analysts said that the momentum may be short-lived. Forward-looking weekly estimates from the Department of Energy suggest a softening in the coming months.
Gasoline demand growth is projected to contract by 2.5% in May and 3.6% in June. Similarly, distillate demand is projected to face deeper headwinds, with forecasts indicating a 4.8% decline in May and a 7.5% drop in June compared to year-ago levels.
Overall, total product demand for April outperformed weekly projections by 475 million b/d, with broad-based strength led by gasoline and propane/propylene.
Meanwhile, gasoline exports declined by 112 million b/d m-o-m to 803 million b/d in April, though they were up 37 million b/d versus a year earlier.
TPH said that the annual gain was driven primarily by stronger flows to South and Central America, while shipments were broadly flat to weaker across all regions on a monthly basis. Exports accounted for 8% of gasoline production, down from 10% in March but broadly in line with April 2025 levels.
Distillate exports revealed a markedly stronger story. Volumes rose 256 million b/d over the month, and 433 million b/d over the year to 1.60 million b/d in April, supported by stronger flows to South and Central America on a monthly basis and increased shipments to Europe over the year.