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US Gas Market Seen Tightening into 2027, Potential Oversupply in 2028, TPH Says

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US natural gas markets are projected to remain a key focus for investors assessing tightening near-term fundamentals before a shift toward oversupply later in the decade, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.

Matt Portillo, analyst at TPH, said that end-of-summer 2027 gas balances will reach 4.1 trillion cubic feet, with investors increasingly focused on when to position for longer-dated holdings beyond 2028.

TPH said the outlook reflects a market still supported by regional constraints and rising demand before new supply and infrastructure changes alter the trajectory.

Regional pricing dynamics remain in focus, including Permian-driven growth, Waha basis spreads in 2027, and medium-term balance trends at Agua Dulce. Portillo also noted emerging structural concerns at Gillis beyond 2028 as demand-supply imbalances deepen.

TPH said global gas markets could tip into oversupply by 2028, with implications for global pricing trends over the next decade. The bank sees European benchmark TTF prices potentially easing toward $6-7 per million British thermal units over time.

Simultaneously, Gulf Coast supply constraints are expected to support Henry Hub prices, potentially narrowing the arbitrage between US and global gas markets by 2029.

On the upstream side, investor interest centered on Antero Resources (AR), EQT Corporation (EQT), Expand Energy (EXE), Range Resources (RRC), BKV Corporation (BKV) and Comstock Resources (CRK).

Midstream companies, including DT Midstream (DTM), TC Energy, Williams Companies (WMB, Energy Transfer (ET), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Cheniere Energy (LNG), and Venture Global (VG), were also widely discussed.

TPH said this underscores expectations that LNG export growth and pipeline bottlenecks will remain central to market direction over the next several years.

Price: $34.72, Change: $-0.80, Percent Change: -2.25%

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