US gasoline demand fell 1.1% over the year in February, improving from a 2.7% drop in January but still lagging recent trends, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.
Quarter-to-date gasoline demand is down 1.9%, compared with declines of 1.2% in Q4 2025 and the average of 0.7% for full-year 2025.
February consumption exceeded weekly estimates by about 34,000 barrels per day, marking a 20th straight upside surprise, though smaller than late-2025 revisions.
The improvement was supported by a 2.6% rise in vehicle miles traveled, while regional weakness in the Gulf Coast and West Coast offset gains elsewhere.
Weekly data from the US Department of Energy suggest gasoline demand will return to growth, rising 0.9% year-on-year in March and 1.2% in April.
US gasoline exports rose to 988,000 barrels per day in February, up 6,000 b/d on the month and 142,000 b/d from a year earlier, driven by stronger flows to Latin America and Mexico.
Exports were 11% of production, above 9% a year ago, and beat weekly estimates. Volumes are expected to ease to 882,000 b/d in March and 865,000 b/d in April.
Distillate demand increased 5.4% over the year, rebounding from a January decline and lifting the QTD average to 2.2%.
The figure topped estimates by about 28,000 b/d, with growth expected to moderate to around 3% in March and April.
Overall US petroleum demand rose 4.5% in February after a January decline, supported by distillates and other fuels, and exceeded forecasts by roughly 114,000 b/d.
Distillate exports fell 91,000 b/d over the month but rose 250,000 b/d over the year to 1.14 million b/d. Despite weaker shipments to Europe, volumes remained elevated, and exports are projected to climb to 1.27 million b/d in March and 1.59 million b/d in April.