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US Equity Investors to Watch Out for Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Inflation Views, Details of Iran Peace Deal This Week

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US equity investors will focus this week on Kevin Warsh's inflation assessment at his first rate-setting meeting as the chair of the Federal Reserve, and details of the framework agreement that Washington and Tehran announced over the weekend to end the Iran war.

* Wednesday's summary statement will be accompanied by the Fed's Summary of Economic Projections, followed by Warsh's press conference, a Scotiabank note said late Friday. No rate changes are expected, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

* Will Warsh seek to tweak 'Inflation is elevated'?, the note said, referring to current language in the Fed policy statement and President Donald Trump's calls to lower interest rates in the final leg of Jerome Powell's chairmanship.

* "The [Federal Open Market] Committee would have to agree, but his argument in favour of trimmed mean PCE could invite a modification," the note said, drawing attention to a different gauge that may become the Fed's preferred to assess inflation.

* Iran confirmed a deal with the US to end fighting on all fronts, Al Jazeera reported Monday. Trump ended Washington's blockade of Iranian ports and said the Strait of Hormuz will reopen on Friday when a pact is signed in Switzerland, the news report said. The deal comes ahead of the upcoming Group of Seven meeting in France that Trump is attending.

* Iran said its nuclear program will be the subject of talks after the deal is signed, Reuters reported. Israel said it will not withdraw from Lebanese territory it has seized and will retaliate if Iran attacks it due to events in Lebanon, the news report added.

* Early Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures were down 5.6% to $80.11 barrel, the US 10-year Treasury yield dropped four basis points to 4.45%, and gold futures jumped 2.8% to $4,359.01 per ounce.

* Quarterly earnings due this week include Accenture (ACN), Kroger (KR), and Jabil (JBL).

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Tadawul Shares Start Week Higher on US-Iran Peace Deal Hopes

Saudi Exchange-traded closed Sunday upbeat as the prospects of a US and Iran peace deal pushed the Tadawul All Share Index 0.57% firmly in the green.Investors are patiently waiting for updates regarding the signing of an interim deal that would end the conflict between the US and Iran. US President Donald Trump signaled that the memorandum of understanding would be signed on Sunday.However, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that the peace framework will be signed "in the coming days." An undisclosed senior Iranian official said that the final draft of its deal reportedly includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil sanction waivers, releasing frozen Iranian assets, as well as other nuclear clauses.Looking ahead to the week, the local economic calendar will mostly be empty except for the release of Saudi Arabia's inflation print for May on Monday. Market watchers will also look out for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and economic projections on Wednesday."In terms of Wednesday's FOMC meeting, we expect the Fed to leave monetary policy unchanged, but we do expect a statement that puts greater emphasis on the possibility of an interest rate rise," ING said in a note. "In the press conference, he will likely acknowledge that economic conditions do not justify rate cuts at this time. Nonetheless, he could reiterate his view that, in time, tech investment will boost US productivity, meaning faster growth without generating inflation. That would imply a lower neutral interest rate that justifies lower policy rates over the medium to longer term."Back at home and on the corporate front, Saudi Pharmaceutical Industries and Medical Appliances (SASE:2070), d/b/a Spimaco, shares ticked up 3.58% at closing as it agreed to boost its stake in Arabian Medical Products Manufacturing, or Enayah, to 63% for 45 million Saudi riyals.

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US Stocks Gain This Week on Iran Deal Progress, Softer Rate Expectations

US equity indexes rose this week as Iran signaled that peace-deal terms with the US are in their final review, inflation data eased rate-increase expectations, and SpaceX (SPCX) shares jumped in their market debut.* The S&P 500 closed at 7,431.46 on Friday, up from 7,383.74 a week earlier. The Nasdaq Composite rose to 25,888.84, from 25,709.53, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced to 51,202.26 from 50,866.78.* Iran is in the final stages of internal deliberations on a peace agreement with the US, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said Friday, according to CNN. "Understanding has been reached on the majority of issues," he said.* US core producer prices rose less than expected in May from both April and a year earlier. Core consumer prices also came in softer than forecast on a monthly basis, while the annual reading matched expectations.* FedWatch data late Friday showed a 43% probability of a 25-basis-point rate increase in December, little changed from a week earlier. Odds for a September increase fell to 26% from 34%, and October odds dropped to 33% from 40%, indicating reduced expectations for additional increases in H2.* Markets see a near-certain chance the Fed will hold rates steady in June and a 92% probability of no change in July.* Space Exploration Technologies shares opened at $150 on Friday, topping the initial public offering price of $135. The stock closed up 19%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$SPCX
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Rise, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV were higher. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) added 0.7%.US equity indexes traded mixed amid conflicting reports on the terms of a draft deal between Iran and Washington to end the war in the Middle East and Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX) making history with its stock market debut.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each rose 1.1%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) climbed up 1.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) rose 0.9%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was up 1%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) advanced 2.1%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was 2.3% higher.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) added 1.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed up 3.4%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 3.3%.CommoditiesCrude oil shed 3.6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) fell 2%. Natural gas rose 1.3%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up 1.5%.Gold on Comex gained 2.9%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose 0.3%. Silver advanced 6.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was up 0.7%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 0.2%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added less than 0.1%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was up 0.3%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was fractionally lower. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) was 0.3% lower, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) rose 0.4%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) dipped 0.1%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) fell 0.1%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) rose fractionally. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbed up 0.5%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) added 0.8%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) gained 0.7%, while iShares US Industrials (IYJ) rose 0.8%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) was up 0.8%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) rose 0.8%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) fell 0.1%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 0.3% higher.

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