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US Equity Indexes Slide as Treasury Yields Surge Amid Trump's Warning to Iran in Event of No Peace Deal

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US equity indexes fell after the 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest in just under two decades, while bets favoring interest rate increases jumped amid President Donald Trump's threat to resume strikes if Iran fails to reach a peace deal.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3% to 26,025.7, with the S&P 500 down 0.2% to 7,390.5 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lower by 0.2% to 49,579.2 in midday trading on Tuesday.

President Trump warned strikes would resume on Iran in the coming days as part of the push for a deal to end the war, after he said he had just called off a US attack, Bloomberg reported.

"I hope we don't have to do the war, but we may have to give them another big hit," Trump told reporters on Tuesday, referring to talks between the Gulf nations and Tehran to agree on a framework for resuming peace negotiations.

When asked how long he would wait, he said: "Well, I mean, I'm saying two or three days, maybe Friday, Saturday, Sunday. Something maybe early next week - a limited period of time."

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is considering helping ships pass through the Strait of Hormuz if it doesn't get unblocked by early July, Bloomberg reported, citing a senior official in the military alliance. Several members of NATO support the idea, but it doesn't have the necessary unanimous support, the report said, citing a diplomat from a NATO country.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called on world leaders at a G7 conference to help the US fight Iranian terrorism by "rooting out the financing that sustains it," CNBC reported.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures rose 0.1% to $108.80, while Brent crude futures fell 1% to $111.03.

US Treasury yields traded mixed, but elevated, as crude oil supply-shock-driven inflationary concerns boosted bets for interest rate increases from September onwards. The 30-year rate rose 2.2 basis points to 5.17%, the strongest level since 2007. The 10-year climbed three basis points to 4.65%, the highest since January 2025.

The probability of a 25 basis-point increase in US interest rates in December was at 40% from 1% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool midday Tuesday. The comparisons for September and October show a similar jump in rate-increase probabilities.

In precious metals, gold futures fell 1% to $4,510.2, and silver futures dropped 3% to $75.11.

In economic news, Redbook US same-store sales rose by 8.1% from a year earlier in the week ended May 16 after a 9.6% year-over-year increase in the previous week.

"Coming off last-minute Mother's Day shopping on Sunday, sales and traffic slowed across the board in the middle of the week, but picked up during the weekend as graduation, BBQ season, and warm weather approached," Redbook noted.

US pending home sales increased more than expected last month as home buyers apparently shrugged off mounting economic uncertainty. The forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings increased 1.4% month over month in April, the National Association of Realtors said. Analysts expected a 1% gain, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.

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US Equity Indexes Off Session Lows as Trump Postpones Iran Attack

US equity indexes closed mixed, albeit off session lows, as President Donald Trump agreed to delay a "large-scale" attack on Iran on Tuesday at the request of leaders from the Middle East negotiating with Tehran.The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.5% to 26,090.73, with the S&P 500 down less than 0.1% to 7,403.05 on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3% to 49,686.12. Technology and industrials led decliners at the close. Energy, financials, and consumer staples were among the top gainers.President Trump will "hold off" on a Tuesday plan to attack Iran, citing a request from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates as he said negotiations to end the war grow more "serious," CNN reported Monday. "This Deal will include, importantly, NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN," Trump was cited as saying.Trump also instructed his leadership "to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice" if a deal isn't reached, according to the president's Truth Social post.Meanwhile, Iran offered an updated peace proposal, which the White House adjudged lacking meaningful improvement over the previous offer, rendering the latest version insufficient to reach a deal to end the war, a senior US official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.Separately, the US has agreed to release a quarter of Iran's frozen funds - totaling tens of billions of dollars - held in foreign banks, a senior Iranian source told Reuters. Washington has shown more flexibility in allowing Iran to continue some peaceful nuclear activity under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the source told the news agency.West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures climbed 1% to $106.48, and Brent crude futures fell 0.4% to $108.83.US Treasury yields slipped after trading mixed earlier in the session. The 10-year was little changed at 4.59%, the highest in about a year. The 30-year rate was steady at 5.13%, the strongest level since 2007.In precious metals, gold futures rose 0.2% to $4,568.8, and silver futures climbed 0.5% to $77.97, clawing back all declines from earlier in the session.In economic news, the National Association of Home Builders' monthly housing market index rose to a reading of 37 in May from 34 in April, compared with expectations for a 34 print in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The index was above the 34 print reported a year earlier.The New York Federal Reserve's services index improved to minus 5.8 in May from minus 14.0 in April, the highest level since January 2025. The index is the first services sector reading for May and suggests a slower contraction.In company news, NextEra Energy (NEE) and Dominion Energy (D) agreed to merge in an all-stock deal to create the world's largest regulated electric utility. Shares of Dominion jumped 9.4%, the second-biggest gainer on the S&P 500.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' (REGN) miss on the fianlimab trial may lead some investors to question the company's broader strategy and execution, RBC Capital Markets said. Regeneron's shares sank 9.8%, the steepest decline on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$D$NEE$REGN
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Mixed, Crude Oil Rises as Iran Reportedly Sends Revised Peace Proposal

US equity indexes traded mixed as crude oil futures rose and government bond yields remained elevated after midday Monday amid reports of an updated peace proposal from Iran to end the war.The Nasdaq Composite fell 0.7% to 26,047.1, with the S&P 500 down 0.3% to 7,389.2. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% to 49,595.5.Technology and industrials led decliners intraday. Energy, financials, and communication services were among the top gainers.Iran has offered an updated proposal, which the White House sees as lacking meaningful improvement over the previous offer, rendering the latest version insufficient to reach a deal to end the war, a senior US official and a source briefed on the issue told Axios.However, a senior Iranian source told Reuters that the US had agreed to release a quarter of Iran's frozen funds - totaling tens of billions of dollars - held in foreign banks. The Iranian source also told the news agency that Washington has shown more flexibility in allowing Iran to continue some peaceful nuclear activity under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency.Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is expected to meet top national security advisers on Tuesday to discuss options for resuming military action, Axios said in a separate news report. "The Clock is Ticking" for Iran, Trump said in a post on Truth Social at the weekend, adding that "they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!"West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures climbed 0.9% to $106.24, and Brent crude futures advanced 0.9% to $110.28.US Treasury yields traded mixed, but elevated. The 10-year was little changed at 4.6%, the highest since January 2025. The 30-year rate was steady at 5.13%, the strongest level since 2007.In precious metals, gold futures slipped 0.1% to $4,558.1, and silver futures were steady at $77.59.In economic news, the National Association of Home Builders' monthly housing market index rose to a reading of 37 in May from 34 in April, compared with expectations for a 34 print in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The index was above the 34 print reported a year earlier."Recent increases for long-term interest rates will continue to hold back home buyer demand," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "Although some regional markets, including parts of the Midwest, are showing relative strength, the housing market continues to face significant affordability challenges."The New York Federal Reserve's services index improved to minus 5.8 in May from minus 14.0 in April, the highest level since January 2025. The index is the first services sector reading for May and suggests a slower contraction.In company news, NextEra Energy (NEE) and Dominion Energy (D) agreed to merge in an all-stock deal to create the world's largest regulated electric utility. Shares of Dominion jumped 8.8%, the second-biggest gainer on the S&P 500.Regeneron Pharmaceuticals' (REGN) miss on the fianlimab trial may lead some investors to question the company's broader strategy and execution, RBC Capital Markets said. Regeneron's shares sank 9.7%, the steepest decline on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$D$NEE$REGN
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Decline, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV fell. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) shed 1%.US equity indexes were mixed in midday trading on Monday as crude oil futures rose amid reports of an updated peace proposal from Iran to end the war.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each rose about 1.9%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) shed 1.9%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) fell 1.5%, and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) was down 1.5%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) dropped 4.3%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was down 3.2%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) gained 0.8%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed 2.5%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 2.4%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 1.5%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 1.9%. Natural gas gained 1.9%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up 1.9%.Gold on Comex eased 0.3%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) rose 0.1%. Silver dropped 0.5%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) added 0.9%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) rose 0.9%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) gained 0.8%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was up 0.5%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) lost 0.2%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) rose 0.9%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) added 0.2%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) was up 0.1%, iShares US Healthcare (IYH) added 0.1%, and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) rose fractionally. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) eased 1.5%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) dipped 0.7%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 2.5%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) lost 3.6%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was down 5.6%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 4% lower.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH