FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week After Soft Inflation Prints, Slumping Retail Sales Set to Restrain Fed Policy Hawks

By

US equity indexes were mixed this week as easing inflation and a drop in retail sales boosted the odds for a monetary policy pause in September, while the Trump administration signaled a pivot toward maximum economic pain on Iran.

* The S&P 500 closed at 7,785.76 on Friday versus 7,709.08 a week ago. The Nasdaq Composite stood at about 26,729.16, compared with 26,348.02 a week earlier, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended lower at 53,732.41, versus 53,885.02 at the end of last week.

* Among firms with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion each, three of the 10 worst performers were in the equal-weighted Dow, according to data compiled by Finviz. The leader among the Dow laggards was Cisco (CSCO), down 8% this week, as fiscal Q4 services revenue missed expectations and adjusted product margin declined.

* Sandisk (SNDK) said it expects sales to grow in the mid-to-high teens from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030. Wells Fargo and RBC Capital Markets lifted price targets for the company. Shares soared 35% this week.

* Across the three indexes, consumer cyclicals, basic materials, and communication services led underperformers while energy and technology topped the gainers.

* Both headline and core consumer and wholesale price inflation rates declined from a year ago in July.

* Retail sales slid unexpectedly in July, the most since May 2025, after rising in the previous month.

* Following the inflation and retail sales data, the probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause in September stood at 67% Friday, up from 55% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining 33% likelihood was for a 25-basis-point increase, down from 44% a week earlier.

* Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the US plans to unveil measures on Iran next week that have "never been seen," CNN reported. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said the US can sustain its blockade against Iran "indefinitely," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported.

Related Articles

Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Rise After Soft Wholesale Price Inflation Print Boosts Odds of Fed Policy-Pause Extension

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data and company/geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes rose, with the S&P 500 breaking records amid gains in growth sectors, after a soft producer price inflation report raised the likelihood of a sixth straight monetary policy pause in September.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 26,803.03, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.7% to 7,798.99 on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% to 53,839.99, clawing out of intraday declines. The S&P 500 hit 7,816.70, its highest intraday level ever.Communication services and technology were among the top gainers, while materials led decliners.Among companies with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion each, eight of the top 10 by returns were in the technology sector Thursday, according to data compiled by Finviz. Sandisk (SNDK), which led the pack with a 14% surge, said it expects revenue to grow in the mid-to-high teens over fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030.Cisco slumped 8.4%, one of the worst performers in the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The tech giant reported flat fiscal Q4 services revenue at $3.79 billion, missing the FactSet-polled consensus of $3.81 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, product gross margin fell to 64.8% from 67.5% a year ago, weighing on total gross margin.The Producer Price Index held steady in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June, versus the 0.2% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Energy prices fell by 3.1% in the month amid a 9.8% slide in natural gas liquids, a 6.7% slump in diesel fuel, and a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI climbed 0.2%, still below the 0.3% gain anticipated and a 0.4% increase in June.Annually, PPI was up 4.7% in July, and core PPI increased by 4.2%, both slowing from June.The producer prices data does potentially mitigate "the sense of urgency for the Fed to firm its policy stance, at least in the nearer term, particularly in the aftermath of a weaker-than-expected July employment report," Lindsey Piegza, Stifel's Chief Economist, said in a research note.Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin (non-voter) said uncertainty remains regarding the path of inflation and whether rate increases will be needed to bring it down to the 2% goal or if it will slow on its own.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 4.3 basis points to 4.65%. The two-year yield dropped five basis points to 4.15%.The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause to September climbed to 65% late Thursday, from 59% a day ago and 45% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Meanwhile, the front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract dropped 2.6% to $81.08 per barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent declined 2.4% to $86.89 per barrel as traders weighed a downbeat demand-supply dynamic and a continuing stalemate in the Iran war.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by a staggering 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. On the same day, the International Energy Agency projected global demand to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, steeper than the 1 million b/d drop seen in July.US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said that the military, by rotating its aircraft carriers, can maintain its blockade on Iran "indefinitely," Al Jazeera, a Middle Eastern broadcaster, reported. President Donald Trump and his top officials are returning to a playbook of relying on a steady increase in economic sanctions and a naval blockade to stifle Iran's oil exports, Bloomberg reported.This comes as Iran's military rejected US claims that vessels are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, saying no ship can pass without its permission, the Al Jazeera report said.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CSCO$SNDK
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Mixed as Soft Wholesale Inflation Boosts Odds for Continuing Fed Policy Pause

(Updates with index/price moves and macroeconomic data from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes traded mixed after a weak producer price inflation print lifted bets for a sixth straight monetary policy pause, while declining crude oil prices reflected demand pessimism.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.8% to 26,800.4, and the S&P 500 climbed 0.6% to 7,795.6 after midday Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by less than 0.1% to 53,761.2 as a sharp sell-off in Cisco (CSCO) weighed on the equal-weighted index. Real estate, technology and communication services topped the gainers, while materials led decliners.Cisco slumped 8.5%, one of the worst performers in the Dow, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. The tech giant reported flat fiscal Q4 services revenue at $3.79 billion, missing the FactSet-polled consensus of $3.81 billion. On a non-GAAP basis, product gross margin fell to 64.8% from 67.5% a year ago, weighing on total gross margin.The Producer Price Index held steady in July, following a 0.1% decrease in June, versus the 0.2% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey, amid sliding energy and food prices. Energy prices fell by 3.1% in the month, with a 9.8% slide in natural gas liquids, a 6.7% slump in diesel fuel, and a 5.7% drop in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI climbed 0.2%, below the 0.3% gain anticipated and a 0.4% increase in June.Annually, PPI was up 4.7% in July, and core PPI increased by 4.2%, both slowing from June.The probability of the Federal Reserve extending its policy pause to September jumped to 66% on Thursday, from 59% a day ago and 45% a week earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool.US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year yield down 4.7 basis points to 4.65% and the two-year lower by 4.8 basis points to 4.15%.Among companies with market capitalizations exceeding $200 billion each, nine of the top 10 by returns were in the technology sector after midday Thursday, according to data compiled by Finviz. Of those nine firms, seven were related to the semiconductor industry. Sandisk (SNDK) was the leader of the pack, up 16%. Sandisk said it expects revenue growth in the mid-to-high-teens from fiscal 2028 through fiscal 2030.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract dropped 1.6% to $81.97 per barrel, and global benchmark North Sea Brent declined 1.4% to $87.76 per barrel as traders weighed a downbeat demand-supply dynamic and a continuing stalemate in the Iran war.US commercial crude oil inventories increased by a staggering 17.4 million barrels in the week ended Aug. 7, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. On the same day, the International Energy Agency projected global demand to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day this year, steeper than the 1 million b/d drop seen last month.The Strait of Hormuz is "under Iran's control and management," the recently appointed head of Iran's Basij paramilitary unit said Thursday, a day after US President Donald Trump said the US had "total control" of the waterway, Reuters reported.Gold futures slid 0.9% to $4,428.7, and silver futures fell 0.9% to $65.10.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$CSCO$SNDK
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV rose. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) added 1.2%.US equity indexes were mixed after a soft producer price inflation print boosted the odds of a monetary policy pause for a sixth consecutive time, while crude oil prices declined.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each fell about 0.3%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) rose 1.1%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) also advanced.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) dipped 0.2%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) rose 2.3%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) eased fractionally. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) rose 0.1%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), added 0.1%.CommoditiesCrude oil dipped 1.6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) fell 1.2%. Natural gas lost 1.3%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) fell 1.7%.Gold on Comex eased 0.8%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was down 1.2%. Silver lost 1.1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) fell 1%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) was up 1%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) rose 0.7%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) added 0.8%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 0.3%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) lost 0.6%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) rose 0.3%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) gained 0.1%. iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) were little changed. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) fell 0.2%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) shed 0.2%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) were also slightly lower.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) fell 0.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) lost 0.6%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was up 0.4%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) dipped 0.1%.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH