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US Equity Indexes Jump, Crude Oil Slides as Trump Hints at Iran Peace Talks This Week

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US equity indexes advanced on Tuesday as optimism that Iran peace talks may resume this week pushed crude oil futures sharply lower, and after mega-cap banks reported quarterly earnings.

The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2% to 23,639.08, the S&P 500 climbed 1.2% to 6,967.38, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 0.7% to 48,535.99. S&P 500 has reportedly clawed back all of its post-Iran-war declines and, according to CNBC-compiled data, the index is close to its all-time high of about 7,002.3.

Consumer discretionary, communication services, and technology led the gainers. Energy was by far the worst performer among a trio of decliners.

Talks to end the Iran war could resume in Pakistan over the next two days, US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports, Reuters reported.

Gulf, Pakistani, and Iranian officials said the US and Iran's negotiating teams could return to Pakistan later this week, according to the news report. Still, one senior Iranian source said no date had been set, the report added.

The CBOE Volatility Index dropped 4% to 18.36.

European countries are putting together a plan for a broad coalition of countries to help free up shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including sending mine-clearing and other military vessels, The Wall Street Journal reported, adding that the plan would only come to pass after the war.

Meanwhile, after the first direct talks in decades, Israel and Lebanon agreed to hold further negotiations "at a mutually agreed time and venue," CNN cited the US State Department as saying.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures sank 6.8% to $92.32, and Brent crude futures slumped 4.3% to $95.13.

In precious metals, gold futures jumped 2% to $4,864.70 and silver futures soared 5.3% to $79.70.

In company news, Citigroup (C) and BlackRock (BLK) reported Q1 earnings and revenue growth above market expectations. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also delivered a better-than-expected quarter.

United Airlines (UAL) Chief Executive Scott Kirby proposed a potential combination with American Airlines (AAL) during a late February meeting with President Donald Trump, Reuters reported Monday, citing two unnamed sources familiar with the matter.

In economic news, the US Producer Price Index rose by 0.5% in March, the same as in February and below the 1.1% gain expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Energy prices jumped by 8.5% in the month after a 2.1% gain in the previous month due to a 15.7% surge in gasoline prices. Excluding food and energy, core PPI edged up 0.1%, below the 0.4% gain forecast and slower than the 0.3% gain reported in February.

Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 4.9 basis points to 4.25% and the two-year retreating 3.6 basis points to 3.75%.

The International Monetary Fund now expects 2.3% US economic growth in 2026, a downward adjustment from its 2.4% estimate set out in January and compared with the 2.1% growth reported in 2025. The IMF also revised down its 2026 global growth outlook in its World Economic Outlook update released Tuesday.

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Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Rise, US Equities Mixed After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV rose. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) added 0.5%.US equity indexes were mixed in Monday's midday trading, with technology topping sector charts and helping lift the Nasdaq Composite.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) each gained about 0.3%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) was up 1.4%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) each added 1.1%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) gained 2.2%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was up 0.9%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) rose 1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) climbed 2.7%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 2.8%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 3.6%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) advanced 4.1%. Natural gas fell 0.2%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) dipped 0.9%.Gold on Comex lost 0.5%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) fell 0.4%. Silver shed 1%, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) dropped 1.1%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) eased 1.2%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) fell 1.3%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) was 1.1% lower.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) rose 0.4%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) dropped 0.8%, while the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) added 0.3%.Health CareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) eased 0.2%, and iShares US Healthcare (IYH) and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) dropped. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) rose 0.7%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) added 0.2%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) also edged higher.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 1.7%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) fell 1.4%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) slipped 1.3%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was down 1.6%.

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Asia Markets

UK Shares Start Week Lower as US-Iran Talks Fail; Associated British Foods Falls

Britain's FTSE 100 closed 0.17% lower on Monday after the failed negotiations between the US and Iran in Pakistan, followed by renewed threats from US President Donald Trump to block "any and all ships" entering or leaving the Strait of Hormuz.In response to Trump's comment, Prime Minister Keir Starmer told BBC Radio 5 Live that the UK will not be involved in the US military's blockade of Iran, adding that the government's response is focused on getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened to lower energy prices "as quickly as possible."On the economic calendar, investors will evaluate the British Retail Consortium's retail sales monitor on Tuesday, and monthly gross domestic product, industrial production, and construction output data on Thursday. Economists from Deutsche Bank Research forecast the British economy to have grown 0.2% month over month in February, compared with the consensus estimate of a 0.1% uptick, supported by broad-based momentum across the services, production and construction sectors.In corporate news, Associated British Foods (ABF.L) fell 1.98%, taking a spot amongst the blue-chip index's worst performers, as RBC Capital Markets cut the food processing and retailing company's rating to underperform from sector perform and price target to 18.5 pounds sterling from 20.5 pounds."As part of our more cautious view on the European Retailing sector, we see further downside risk to consensus earnings forecasts, mainly due to pressure on ABF's largest business Primark," analysts said. "Although we think a demerger should make ABF more investable in the long run, we think ABF's valuation is full given more limited growth prospects over the next few years."Meanwhile, Vistry Group (VTY.L) named Adam Daniels as its chief executive officer to succeed Greg Fitzgerald, effective immediately. The homebuilder's shares declined 3.83% at close."On the one hand it is good news that Vistry has found and appointed a new CEO, taking away uncertainty around the appointment. However, the appointment appears a little rushed to us: the candidate (Adam Daniels) is internal, and the appointment sees Adam coming in and Greg Fitzgerald leaving with immediate effect. At the time of the FY2025 results in March it was announced Mr Fitzgerald would relinquish the role of chair at the AGM, and remain as CEO until a replacement had been found. We also believe that the market was looking for an external rather than an internal appointment. We expect the share price to be weak as it digests today's news," RBC said in a separate note.

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Asia Markets

German Stocks Down as US Moves to Block Iranian Ports

German equities kicked off a new trading week on a downbeat note, closing Monday's session 0.26% lower, as the US moved to seal the Strait of Hormuz after weekend peace talks ended without a deal."Markets have seen a clear risk-off move this morning after no deal was reached in the US-Iran talks over the weekend, with the US set to blockade the Strait of Hormuz for vessels entering or departing Iranian ports. So, despite last week's optimism when the two-week ceasefire was announced, the mood has shifted negatively once again, with Brent crude oil prices up +7.39% this morning to $102.24/bbl. And in turn, that's revived fears about a stagflationary shock, with equities and bonds losing ground around the world," Deutsche Bank Research said.With the Strait of Hormuz closure fueling a surge in energy costs, Bloomberg News reported that the European Commission is set to recommend reduced power grid fees and energy taxes, aiming to accelerate clean technology adoption while shielding the bloc's economy from volatile oil and gas prices. Citing people with knowledge of the matter, the news outlet said a formal policy paper outlining the relief measures is expected to be adopted by the European Union's executive arm on April 22.In economic news, investors are on the lookout for Tuesday's German wholesale price data and Thursday's final eurozone inflation reading for March. Market attention is also expected to shift to the ongoing International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring meetings, with Tuesday's release of the IMF's World Economic Outlook anticipated to be a key focus.On the corporate side, Rheinmetall (RHM.F) and Norwegian defense technology company Destinus agreed to form a joint venture, Rheinmetall Destinus Strike Systems, focused on advanced missile production. The Unterlüß, Germany-based entity is expected to launch in the second half, pending regulatory approval, with the German defense supplier holding a 51% majority stake. Rheinmetall shares added 2.45% and the stock was the DAX's top gainer.Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank Research cut its price target for MTU Aero Engines' (MTX.F) buy-rated stock ahead of the company's first-quarter results due on April 30."We expect no impact from the Middle East conflict on Q1 activity, but some increased focus on MTU's sensitivity to potential engine retirements and its impact on midterm guidance. We lower our Price Target (PT) from EUR449 to EUR428 on more conservative cash conversion rates assumptions, moving 2030 levels down from 89% to 76%," the research firm said in a preview note. The German aircraft engine manufacturer was down 0.89% at closing.

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