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US Equity Indexes Fall After Trump Warns of Severe Economic Actions Against Iran, Driving Up Oil Prices, Bond Yields

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US equity indexes fell on Thursday as bond yields and oil prices surged after President Donald Trump warned of severe economic sanctions against Iran, and any country that offers a lifeline to the Middle-East nation.

Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi dismissed Trump's warning in an X post, calling it a diversion from America's challenges of "unprecedented debt & surging interest costs."

Bond yields continued to rise despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stating that the buyback of long-dated government debt, announced yesterday, could exceed $4 billion per operation, CNBC reported Thursday, citing an interview with the official.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 1% to 26,067.1, and the S&P 500 declined 0.8% to 7,641.6. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 1.3% to 52,762.3. Energy and real estate sectors led the gainers, while consumer staples and health led the decliners.

The yield on 30-year Treasuries rose 5.4 basis points to 5.248%, while the 10-year yield gained 4.9 basis points to 4.702%.

Gold futures gained 0.9% to $4,587.4 per ounce, and silver futures rose 3.9% to $68.43.

In economic news, the Conference Board's measure of leading indicators rose by 0.2% in July, a larger gain than the 0.1% increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg, and following a 0.1% decrease in June.

The Conference Board highlighted that economic growth is expected to be driven by investments in AI, while consumer spending could slump due to the higher cost of living.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve's monthly manufacturing index rose to 47.4 in August, compared with 41.4 in July and an anticipated decrease to 24.1 according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg.

According to the Labor Department, US initial jobless claims declined to 206,000 in the week ended Aug. 15 from the upwardly revised 212,000 level in the week earlier, and lower than 210,000 expected in a survey of analysts compiled by Bloomberg.

US natural gas stocks rose by 16 billion cubic feet in the week ended Aug. 14, higher than the 15 billion gain expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following an increase of 36 billion cubic feet in the week prior.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract rose 2.7% to $88.15 per barrel.

In company news, SpaceX (SPCX) shares fell 4% on Thursday after around 319 million early-investor shares of the company became eligible to trade today. The company also approached Cognition AI for a potential acquisition, but there are currently no active deal talks between them, Bloomberg reported late Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

Walmart (WMT) shares fell 9.1% on Thursday after its fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance missed analyst expectations. The company reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings of $0.81 per share, up from $0.68 a year earlier and above the FactSet estimate of $0.74. Revenue was $187.94 billion, up from $177.40 billion a year ago and above the FactSet estimate of $186.62 billion. For fiscal 2027, Walmart expects adjusted EPS of $2.80 to $2.87, up from $2.75 to $2.85 earlier, but below the FactSet estimate of $2.90.

Moderna (MRNA) shares fell 23.5% following a 177% jump at the close of the previous trading session. The drugmaker and Merck (MRK) announced positive topline results from a late-stage trial of an experimental skin cancer treatment on Wednesday.

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US Equity Indexes Rise After Most FOMC Participants Support Rate Hold, Treasury Boosts Buybacks

US equity indexes rose on Wednesday after most Federal Open Market Committee participants agreed to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75%, and the US Treasury said it would ramp up buybacks of long-dated government debt to at least $4 billion per operation in September.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.1% to 26,331.09, and the S&P 500 gained 0.2% to 7,707.98. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.2% to 53,463.05. Health and consumer discretionary led the gainers, while industrials and technology sectors led the decliners.The yield on 30-year Treasuries fell 10.1 basis points to 5.18%, while the 10-year yield fell 6.7 basis points to 4.64%.Gold futures gained 3.3% to $4,566.6 per ounce, and silver futures rose 3.8% to $66.475.While FOMC participants acknowledged that inflation remained elevated, most of them expected it to simmer over the remainder of the year as the effects of tariffs and earlier energy price hikes fade. They also observed that economic activity continued to expand at a solid pace while labor market conditions appeared stable.President Donald Trump also paused tariffs on certain Canadian goods in a Truth Social post. He also said the Keystone XL Pipeline, which was canceled in 2021, may be revived. The tariff play comes ahead of negotiations for the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.In economic news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 900,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 14, following an increase of 11.3 million barrels in the prior week.The US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract rose 0.8% to $85.63 per barrel.US mortgage applications fell by 0.4% in the week ended Aug. 14, with an increase in refinancing activity offset by declining home purchase applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association."In addition to the economic uncertainty, affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for homebuyers to delay purchase decisions given the impact of higher mortgage rates on monthly mortgage payments," said MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan.In company news, Moderna (MRNA) shares climbed 177%, and Merck (MRK) shares gained 12.6% after the companies said a trial of intismeran autogene combined with Keytruda met the primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma.Target (TGT) shares rose 4.3% after the company posted higher-than-expected fiscal Q2 results and lifted its 2026 guidance. The company reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings of $4.11 per diluted share, up from $2.05 a year earlier and above FactSet consensus of $2.34. Fiscal Q2 net sales were $26.54 billion, up from $25.21 billion a year ago and above the FactSet consensus of $26.13 billion. For fiscal 2026, the company lifted its adjusted EPS guidance to between $9.90 and $10.90 from $7.50 to $8.50 earlier, compared with FactSet estimates of $8.52.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$MRK$MRNA$TGT
Asia Markets

US Equity Indexes Rise as Bond Yields Ease After Treasury Raises Buyback Cap, Trump Pauses Canada Tariffs

US equity indexes rose after midday Wednesday after the Treasury Department said it would increase buybacks of long-dated government debt to at least $4 billion per operation in September from $2 billion, and President Donald Trump paused tariffs on certain Canadian goods in a late Tuesday Truth Social post.The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.2% to 26,343.5, and the S&P 500 gained 0.3% to 7,716.1. The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 0.2% to 53,456.1. Health and materials led the gainers, while technology and industrials led the decliners.The yield on 30-year Treasuries fell 7 basis points to 5.215%, while the 10-year yield fell 3 basis points to 4.677%.Trump also said the proposed Keystone XL Pipeline, which was canceled in 2021, may be revived. The tariff play comes ahead of negotiations for the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement.Gold futures gained 3% to $4,553.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 3% to $65.95.In economic news, US crude oil stocks, including those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 900,000 barrels in the week ended Aug. 14, following an increase of 11.3 million barrels in the prior week.Excluding SPR inventories, commercial crude oil stocks rose by 4.4 million barrels compared with a 17.4-million-barrel gain in the week prior, and the 200,000-barrel increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract rose 2.4% to $86.99 per barrel.US mortgage applications fell by 0.4% in the week ended Aug. 14, with an increase in refinancing activity offset by declining home purchase applications, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association."In addition to the economic uncertainty, affordability difficulties have reemerged as a reason for homebuyers to delay purchase decisions given the impact of higher mortgage rates on monthly mortgage payments," said MBA deputy chief economist Joel Kan.In company news, Moderna (MRNA) shares climbed 150%, and Merck (MRK) shares gained 11.5% after the companies said a trial of intismeran autogene combined with Keytruda met the primary endpoint of recurrence-free survival and a key secondary endpoint of distant metastasis-free survival in patients with completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma.Target (TGT) shares rose 5.8% after the company posted higher-than-expected fiscal Q2 results and boosted its 2026 guidance. The company reported fiscal Q2 adjusted earnings of $4.11 per diluted share, up from $2.05 a year earlier and above FactSet consensus of $2.34. Fiscal Q2 net sales were $26.54 billion, up from $25.21 billion a year ago and above the FactSet consensus of $26.13 billion. For fiscal 2026, the company lifted its adjusted EPS guidance to between $9.90 and $10.90 from $7.50 to $8.50 earlier, compared with FactSet estimates of $8.52.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$MRK$MRNA$TGT
Asia Markets

Exchange-Traded Funds Higher as US Equities Gain After Midday

Broad Market IndicatorsBroad-market exchange-traded funds IWM and IVV were higher. Actively traded Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) gained 0.3%.US equity indexes rose after midday Wednesday as Moderna (MRNA) and Merck (MRK) surged on positive results from a late-stage trial of their melanoma vaccine, and the US Treasury said it would double the buybacks of long-dated government debt.EnergyIShares US Energy ETF (IYE) gained 0.5% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) rose about 0.3%.TechnologyThe State Street Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLK) shed 0.5%; iShares US Technology ETF (IYW) eased 0.2% and iShares Expanded Tech Sector ETF (IGM) also declined 0.3%.The State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor (XSD) shed 1.7%, and iShares Semiconductor (SOXX) was down 1.6%.FinancialThe State Street Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) declined 0.1%. Direxion Daily Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) advanced 0.4%, and its bearish counterpart, Direxion Daily Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ), declined 0.4%.CommoditiesCrude oil rose 2%, and the United States Oil Fund (USO) added 1.5%. Natural gas gained 1.8%, and the United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) was up 1.4%.Gold on Comex increased 3.1%, and the State Street SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was up 3.4%. Silver was 3.1% higher, and iShares Silver Trust (SLV) was up 3.6%.ConsumerThe State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (XLP) was up 0.9%. The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) added 0.9%, and iShares Dow Jones US Consumer Goods (IYK) rose 0.3%.The State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR (XLY) was up 1.8%. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) added 1.1%, and the State Street SPDR S&P Retail (XRT) rose 2%.HealthcareThe State Street Health Care Select Sector SPDR (XLV) added 2.6%. iShares US Healthcare (IYH) gained 2.8% and Vanguard Health Care ETF (VHT) was 2.5% higher. IShares Biotechnology ETF (IBB) climbed up 4.6%.IndustrialThe State Street Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI) shed 0.5%. Vanguard Industrials Index Fund (VIS) fell 0.5%, and iShares US Industrials (IYJ) was also down 0.2%.CryptocurrencyIn midday activity, bitcoin (BTC-USD) rose 6.4%. Among cryptocurrency ETFs, ProShares Bitcoin ETF (BITO) added 6.4%, ProShares Ether ETF (EETH) was up 9.6%, and ProShares Bitcoin & Ether Market Cap Weight ETF (BETH) was 7.3% higher.

Dow Jones^EEM^EXI^FAS^FAZ^GLD^IBB^IGM^IGV^IPK^IVV^IWMNasdaq Composite^IYE^IYH^IYJ^IYK^IYW^PMR^QQQ^RTH^SOXXS&P 500^SPY^UNG^USO^VDC^VHT^VIS^XLE^XLF^XLI^XLK^XLP^XLV^XRT^XSD$BETH$BITO$EETH$MRK$MRNA