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US Crude Stocks Set for Modest Build After Surprise Drawdown, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 2.5-million-barrel build for the week ending July 31, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 7.2-million-barrel draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to ease by 100,000 barrels per day, though throughput is projected to remain elevated at about 17.2 million b/d. Crude exports are forecasted to rise by 700,000 b/d, while imports are expected to rise by 100,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, rose by 900,000 b/d for the week ended July 31, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve dropped by 2.9 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 2.2 million bbls, while distillate inventories are projected to drop by 2 million bbls and jet fuel stocks by 600,000 b/d.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.8 mm b/d.

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