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US Crude Stocks Seen Tightening Further On Exports, SPR Draws, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 3-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 15, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, following a 4.3 mmbbl draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to increase by about 100,000 barrels per day, though turnaround timing remains a key swing factor for the week. Crude exports are projected to rise by about 400,000 b/d, while imports are projected to edge up by 100,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will increase by 400,000 b/d for the week ended May 15, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 9.9 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 2.5 mmbbls, distillate inventories by 1.9 mmbbls, while jet fuel stocks are projected to rise by about 1 mmbbls.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.6 mmb/d.

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