Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 1.4-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 22, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, following a 7.9 mmbbls draw the previous week.
Crude runs are projected to increase by about 300,000 barrels per day, though turnaround timing remains a key variable for the week. Crude exports are projected to drop by about 300,000 b/d, while imports are projected to edge up by 100,000 b/d.
"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.
Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will increase by 1 mmbbls for the week ended May 22, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 9.1 million bbls.
On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to fall by 2.5 mmbbls, distillate inventories will increase by 300,000 b/d, and a 1.2 mmbbls increase in jet fuel stocks.
Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.6 mmb/d.