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US Crude Stocks Seen Falling 6.1 Million Barrels on Higher Exports, SPR Draw, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is expected to show a 6.1-million-barrel draw for the week ending June 12, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 7.2-mmbbl draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to rise by about 100,000 barrels per day after another slight increase in the prior week.

Crude exports are projected to rise moderately by 300,000 b/d, while imports are projected to edge lower by 200,000 b/d on a nominal basis.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that implied domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will rise by 600,000 b/d for the week ended June 12, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve are set for "another large draw" of 8.9 million bbls.

"While we model SPR releases as immediately benefitting commercial stocks, the precise timing of these flows could also add noise to weekly balances," according to the note.

On the products front, modest changes are expected with gasoline inventories up 700,000 bbls, distillate inventories down 400,000 bbls, and a 500,000-bbl increase in jet fuel stocks.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.4 mmb/d.

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