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US Crude Stocks Seen Falling 5.5 Million Barrels on Strong Exports, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 5.5-million-barrel draw for the week ending June 26, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Tuesday, following a 6.1 mmbbls draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to drop by about 300,000 barrels per day during the week. Crude exports are projected to rise by 200,000 b/d, while imports are projected to increase by 100,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, rose by 300,000 b/d for the week ended June 26, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decreased by 5.5 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to drop by 1.8 million bbls and a 700,000-barrel draw in distillate stocks, while jet fuel inventories are expected to be little changed.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 14.8 mmb/d.

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