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US Crude Stocks Seen Extending Declines as Exports Stay Elevated, Macquarie Says

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Weekly US crude inventory data from the Energy Information Administration is forecast to show a 6.2-million-barrel draw for the week ending May. 29, Macquarie strategists said in a weekly note on Monday, following a 3.3 mmbbls draw the previous week.

Crude runs are projected to ease by about 200,000 barrels per day after a strong increase in the prior week. Crude exports are projected to increase by about 1.2 mmbbls, while imports are projected to edge up by 800,000 b/d.

"Timing of cargoes remains a source of potential volatility in the weekly crude balance," Macquarie strategists said.

Macquarie projected that domestic supply, which includes production, adjustments, and transfers, will remain flat on a nominal basis for the week ended May 29, while stocks in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve decrease by 8 million bbls.

On the products front, gasoline inventories are forecast to be nearly flat at 100,000 b/d, distillate inventories will increase by 1.3 mmbbls, and a 1.6 mmbbls increase in jet fuel stocks.

Macquarie forecasts the combined implied demand for gasoline, distillates, and jet fuel at about 13.7 mmb/d.

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