US crude oil prices fell more than $2 per barrel after government data showed a much larger-than-expected jump in domestic crude inventories, overshadowing signs of increasingly tight supplies of gasoline, diesel and jet fuel, Rystad Energy strategists said on Thursday.
Rystad analysts said that the crude stock build reflects a lengthening US oil balance as the Strategic Petroleum Reserve release program winds down and exports ease. However, the consultancy said the more significant development was the depletion of refined-product inventories in the US and Europe.
"What began as a Middle East crude oil supply crisis is turning into a global refined product supply crisis," said Susan Bell, senior vice president of commodity markets, oil at Rystad Energy.
US commercial crude inventories increased by 2.48 million barrels in the week to week 31, according to the Energy Information Administration, compared with expectations for a smaller build. Rystad expects stocks to rise by a further 2.15 million barrels in week 32.
The latest increase was partly driven by crude imports that were 140,000 barrels per day above expectations, while refinery throughput was 105,000 barrels per day below forecast.
US crude production remained steady at about 13.8 million b/d, while refinery utilization stood at 96.5% of operable capacity, the consultancy said. Throughput is expected to remain above 17 million bpd through late August.
The end of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve release program is also expected to alter the country's crude balance. The SPR held about 298.7 million barrels as of Aug. 7.
The US government drew crude at an average rate of 870,000 b/d last week, up from 406,000 b/d the previous week.
The second phase of the 2026 release program is expected to continue through August at about 700,000 b/d, while a final 500,000-barrel release is expected in September.
Rystad said once the program is completed, the amount of crude available for export is expected to decline, potentially affecting the US crude balance in the months ahead.
Though the crude build weighed on oil prices, refined-product inventories painted a markedly different picture.
Gasoline, jet fuel and middle distillate stocks fell in the United States during the week, while gasoline inventories at Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub also recorded steep draws.
Rystad said that US and ARA product inventories are now at historically low levels, supporting strong refining margins even as crude prices weaken.
Gasoline inventories at the ARA hub are running at about 75% of their opening 2026 level, while gasoline stocks have fallen to roughly 63%. Jet fuel inventories are even more depleted, at about 58% of their level at the start of the year.
Rystad said gasoline inventories in the US are 13.9 million barrels below the five-year average and about 6.8 million barrels below the seasonal minimum. Diesel inventories are 14.1 million barrels below the seasonal average.
US diesel exports climbed to 1.88 million b/d in the week ended July 31, the highest level this year, as refiners responded to strong international demand and reduced Middle Eastern product supplies.
The bearish crude inventory data has been partly offset by continuing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and disruptions to crude flows elsewhere.
Rystad said WTI was trading above $81 per barrel at the start of the week, supported by uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed regional attacks, including a Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery on Aug. 9. The strike damaged a storage tank and triggered a fire that was quickly extinguished.