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US Crude Net Exports Near Zero as SPR Falls to 298.7 Million Barrels, Kpler Says

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US crude exports have weakened as domestic refiners absorb more barrels, with net exports nearing zero while the SPR falls to 298.7 million barrels, Kpler said in a Wednesday note.

The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve fell by 6.1 million barrels in the week to Aug. 7, taking inventories below 300 million barrels for the first time since 1983 and to a fresh 40-plus-year low.

Weekly SPR releases accelerated from the prior four weeks, when draws ranged between 2.8 mmbbls and 5.1 mmbbls, but remained below the 8 mmbbls to 9 mmbbls pace seen through much of May and June.

Kpler said stronger US crude demand and softer overseas demand have changed the role of SPR barrels, with more of the supply now supporting domestic refinery consumption.

Medium sour crude exports averaged 160,000 barrels per day in the week beginning July 26, falling from roughly 300,000 b/d to 400,000 b/d in the preceding two weeks and reaching zero in the week beginning Aug. 3.

US crude exports fell to 2.8 million b/d in the week beginning Aug. 3, their lowest level since July 2025, while imports held near 2.8 million b/d, leaving net exports almost at zero.

Strong refinery activity continues to underpin domestic crude demand, with US runs averaging about 17 million b/d in August versus around 17.2 million b/d in July, while Kpler expects throughput to reach 16.4 million b/d in September.

Kpler expects primary distillation capacity offline to increase to 350,000 b/d in September and 500,000 b/d in October, although those figures remain 500,000 b/d and 800,000 b/d below year-ago levels.

Refiners have pushed much of their turnaround work into Q1 of next year, allowing them to capitalize on strong refining margins and sustain crude runs at relatively high levels.

Tighter US product inventories and strong cracks are supporting refinery margins, with gasoline cracks at about $35/bbl versus over $70/bbl for ultra-low sulfur diesel and jet fuel/kerosene.

The favorable margin outlook should sustain domestic crude demand, including SPR barrels, while tighter crude balances should support the premium for front-month crude over second-month contracts, Kpler said.

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