Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15, following a 2.19-mmbbl draw the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 3.4-mmbbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.
The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.
China's electric vehicle market slowed to 2024 comparable-period levels as weaker demand and subsidy reductions pressured automakers, Wood Mackenzie said in a Monday note.Wood Mackenzie said the industry is entering a more competitive phase marked by slower domestic growth, shrinking margins, rising overseas expansion and widening technology differences."The industry is now being reshaped by charging performance, integration depth, and the ability to control cost across the full value chain," Wood Mackenzie analyst Alasia Zhang said.The consultancy said fading trade-in subsidies, tighter financing conditions and selective price increases weakened Chinese consumer demand during 2026.Several automakers also removed zero-interest financing programs, raising purchase costs as vehicle designs and in-car digital features became increasingly similar across brands, according to the note.Wood Mackenzie said ultra-fast charging is becoming the sector's main competitive benchmark as automakers target charging from 10% to near-full capacity in less than 10 minutes."Ultra-fast charging is rapidly becoming the industry's defining performance benchmark rather than a standalone feature," Zhang said in the report.BYD expanded an integrated fast-charging ecosystem covering batteries, vehicles and charging infrastructure, while Contemporary Amperex Technology or CATL pursued a broader strategy combining fast charging and battery swapping across multiple partners.The report said rising battery raw material costs are squeezing profitability for mid-sized automakers that lack scale advantages or deeper vertical integration across supply chains.Chinese automakers, including BYD, Geely, and Chery, are increasingly relying on overseas markets for growth as Europe and other export regions show stronger demand, according to Wood Mackenzie.Battery makers are also expanding overseas as REPT advances plans for its first international production site, while Chinese automakers and battery suppliers accelerate global expansion to offset growing pressure in the domestic EV market, Wood Mackenzie said.Wood Mackenzie said commercial rollout timelines for next-generation battery technologies continue to slip, as all-solid-state batteries remain unlikely to reach mass-market scale before 2030 due to high costs and limited vehicle integration.Sunwoda estimates solid-state batteries still cost three to four times more than conventional systems, while CATL delayed large-scale deployment of its sodium-ion Naxtra platform to at least Q4 of 2026, according to the note.Chinese automakers, including Geely, Changan, and Chery, are expanding hybrid vehicle platforms with larger batteries as stricter fuel-efficiency rules support adoption in the export market.Wood Mackenzie said battery storage demand remains strong with full order books across major suppliers, while CATL is expanding further into system integration to accelerate project execution.
US natural gas futures pared earlier gains in after-hours trading on Monday but remained higher on the session as rising temperatures across much of the country boosted expectations for stronger cooling demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each rose 2.16% to settle at $3.024 per million British thermal units.Prices climbed to a 1.75-month high for the nearest futures contract, according to Barchart, as forecasts for hotter-than-normal weather lifted expectations for gas-fired electricity demand tied to increased air-conditioning use.Commodity Weather Group said warm temperatures are expected across the eastern half of the US from May 27 through Jun. 1, which should support prices.However, "Near-term warmth is expected to give way to a sharp midweek cooldown before temperatures return closer to seasonal norms into early June," Gelber & Associates said. "That suggests the current power burn strength may be difficult to sustain straight through the Memorial Day period."On the supply side, lower-48 gas demand on Monday was estimated at 69.9 billion cubic feet per day, up 2.5 Bcf/d from Friday and 9.2% higher than a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.Gelber said overnight power-sector demand, or power burn, jumped 5.4 Bcf/d to 40.0 Bcf/d as cooling demand strengthened, while residential and commercial demand fell 3.2 Bcf/d to 9.7 Bcf/d as seasonal heating demand continued to fade.On the supply side, Barchart said US dry gas production slipped to 108.9 Bcf/d on Monday, down 800 MMcf/d from Friday, though still 1.3% above year-ago levels.Gelber said production remains stable, but lower Canadian imports have tightened balances. Canadian inflows fell to 3.7 Bcf/d, the lowest level in two weeks, amid seasonal maintenance activity, making the market more sensitive to incremental weather-driven demand.BNEF data showed net flows to US LNG export terminals rose slightly to 17.9 Bcf/d on Monday, up from Friday and 1.7% higher week-on-week. Feedgas flows were running below capacity, their combined 20 Bcf/d plus capacity, due to seasonal maintenance.In geopolitical developments, US President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post on Monday that he had postponed a planned Tuesday military attack on Iran following requests from Gulf state leaders.
US refiners pushed utilization near 93% in early May as record exports and tight global fuel supplies boosted refinery demand, Kpler said in a Monday note.Kpler said strong refining margins, lighter maintenance schedules, and rising global demand for refined fuels are keeping US downstream operations in max-output mode.The latest Energy Information Administration data showed refinery utilization running about 4 percentage points above normal seasonal levels during the first week of May, despite some unexpected outages.Kpler expects refinery throughput to stay above 16.5 million barrels per day during May, while second- and third-quarter runs could average between 16.5 million b/d and 16.7 million b/d.Refinery closures across Europe and parts of the US, along with reduced refinery runs east of the Suez Canal, have increased dependence on Atlantic Basin suppliers, the note said.Kpler said the US and Nigeria's Dangote refinery have become key balancing suppliers for global fuel markets as buyers replace disrupted Middle Eastern product flows.The report said sustained high refinery utilization is increasing pressure on operations and could raise the risk of additional outages during the summer driving season.Kpler pointed to recent disruptions and maintenance events at BP's Whiting refinery, Valero's Port Arthur refinery, and Exxon's Baytown refinery as signs of rising operational strain.Strong diesel and jet fuel margins, along with improving gasoline cracks ahead of summer demand, continue supporting elevated refinery runs, particularly along the US Gulf Coast, Kpler said.US refiners are also processing more domestic light crude oil, with the weighted-average API gravity of their feedstock rising about 2.2 points since 2015 as shale output expands.US clean product exports averaged about 3.3 million b/d since March, up from roughly 2.8 million b/d during the first two months of 2026 and about 2.6 million b/d in 2025, according to Kpler.The report said major US fuel inventories dropped from around 440 million barrels on March 3 to roughly 385 million barrels by May 9, pushing stocks to five-year lows after a nearly 55-million-barrel draw over 10 weeks.