US clean energy firms are expected to report mixed Q2 results, as strong demand for power infrastructure and utility-scale solar offsets uncertainty in residential solar, tariffs, and shifting trade policies, RBC Capital Markets strategists said on Friday.
RBC analysts said the clean energy sector has gained about 16% so far this year, although it has declined about 9% over the past month amid broader market volatility.
The analysts said the long-term demand outlook remains supported by rising electricity requirements, especially from artificial intelligence data centers, but near-term earnings could be shaped by policy developments and supply chain constraints.
RBC said that during the upcoming earnings season, investors will be closely watching signs of stabilization in the US residential solar market, the outcome of a US Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports, and potential delays affecting data center power demand.
"Recent macro volatility has impacted the sector, but we see a sustained strong demand backdrop longer term," RBC analysts said in a note.
Utility-scale solar developers are expected to maintain a positive outlook, with industry forecasts largely unchanged. RBC analysts said demand remains strong as solar and battery storage continue to offer a cost advantage over alternative power sources.
However, permitting delays, grid interconnection bottlenecks and equipment lead times remain constraints on accelerating project deployments.
Recovery remains uneven in residential solar. RBC said buyers who delayed tax credit transactions in late 2025 due to uncertainty around changes to US tax policy are beginning to return, increasing competition for high-quality tax credits.
Companies including Enphase Energy and SolarEdge Technologies are projected to focus investor attention on demand recovery in Europe and the US, new product launches and margin improvement.
The consultancy firm expects continued pressure on US residential demand through the second half of the year as the industry adjusts to the expiration of residential tax credits, though companies such as Sunrun could benefit from higher electricity prices and opportunities in distributed energy.
Meanwhile, the rapid expansion of AI infrastructure continues to support demand for electricity generation equipment, but analysts said that project delays and community opposition could slow construction timelines.
Gas power equipment manufacturers are positioned to benefit from rising demand for reliable power, with combined-cycle gas turbine backlogs extending into 2029 and beyond.
GE Vernova is expected to report strong bookings momentum, supported by demand for gas power and electrification equipment, while companies focused on smaller-scale generators and fuel cells are also positioned to capture demand from behind-the-meter data center applications.
RBC said high-efficiency reciprocating engines and fuel cells could gain traction for data centers because of faster deployment timelines, lower noise levels and environmental advantages.
On the policy front, a major focus of earnings calls will be trading policy, particularly the pending Section 232 investigation into polysilicon imports.
The investigation, initially expected by the end of June, has been delayed, with industry expectations now pointing to a possible decision in late July or August.
RBC said potential tariffs could range between 30% and 50%, although a quota-based system tied to US manufacturing investment could limit near-term impacts.
Clean energy companies may also receive a temporary earnings boost from accelerated US tariff refunds.
The US Treasury has distributed billions of dollars in refunds, with RBC forecasting that remaining payments could provide additional support through Q3.