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US Biofuels Update: Soybeans Gain Friday on Bullish USDA Outlook, China Demand and Weather Concerns

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher on Friday, with soybean futures and soybean oil advancing after the United States Department of Agriculture's July supply-and-demand report reinforced export demand while weather concerns continued to underpin sentiment.

The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 1.19% higher at $11.91 3/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 0.77% higher at 70.46 cents per pound.

The Nymex August ethanol futures contract settled 0.13% higher on Friday at $1.93 per gallon.

Soybean futures rallied after USDA's July World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates delivered supportive revisions to soybean supply and demand, with traders expected to shift their focus back to US growing season weather, according to DTN analyst Rhett Montgomery.

August soybean futures climbed 14 cents as traders also responded to mid-July heat and dryness concerns and nearly 1 million metric tons of flash export sales during the week, led by purchases from China, Montgomery said.

USDA raised its 2025-26 US soybean export forecast by 10 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels, reducing old-crop ending stocks to 330 million bushels from 340 million bushels.

For 2026-27, USDA projected a record US soybean crop of 4.475 billion bushels but also increased export demand to 1.66 billion bushels, leaving ending stocks unchanged at 310 million bushels, the lowest level in four years, Montgomery added.

USDA also increased its forecast for Chinese soybean imports by 1 million metric tons for both 2025-26 and 2026-27 while trimming projected global soybean ending stocks for 2026-27 to 124.2 million metric tons, supporting longer-term demand expectations.

Montgomery added that a US market share of 25 million metric tons, or 22%, appears attainable if China imports 114 million metric tons of soybeans in the coming year.

Montgomery said August soybean futures held technical support at the 100-day moving average and the market could retest the $12.00-per-bushel level next week as weather remains the primary market driver following the USDA report.

Ethanol makers will use 5.6 billion bushels of corn in the 2026-2027 marketing year that started on Sept. 1, the Department of Agriculture forecast in a monthly report Thursday. That's unchanged from the June outlook for 5.6 billion bushels.

Total US corn use for 2026/27 is forecast at 16.25 billion bushels. That's above last month's outlook of 16.02 billion.

Biodiesel makers will use 17.8 billion pounds of soybean oil in the 2026-2027 marketing year, which began on October 1. That's unchanged from the June outlook and higher than the 14.6 billion pounds used in the 2025/2026 marketing year.

The USDA estimated US soybean oil 2026/2027 ending stocks at 1.87 billion pounds, unchanged from June.

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