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US Biofuels Update: Soybean, Soybean Oil Futures Decline Thursday on WASDE Supply Expectations

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Thursday, with soybean and soybean oil declining as traders focused on weak weekly export sales and expectations that Friday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report could temporarily raise US soybean supplies.

The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 1.3% lower at $11.77 3/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 1.29% lower at 68.62 cents per pound.

The Nymex August ethanol futures contract settled 0.52% higher on Thursday at $1.93 per gallon.

Friday's WASDE report is expected to show a temporary increase in 2026 soybean production and ending stocks following higher planted acreage reported on June 30, said Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst.

The US Department of Agriculture reported old-crop soybean export sales of 2 million bushels for the week ended July 2, while shipments reached 21.1 million bushels, the highest weekly total in eight weeks and above the pace needed to meet the agency's export forecast.

New-crop soybean export sales totaled 15 million bushels, lifting outstanding sales to 104 million bushels.

USDA's weekly export sales data excluded 27 million bushels of flash soybean sales reported earlier this week, with the majority of the purchases made by China, Rhett Montgomery added.

"I don't expect an overly bearish market reaction to this as it can really be chalked up to timing ahead of the critical yield-defining weather window in the next 60 days," Montgomery said.

Argentina's 2026 soybean harvest is complete, with production estimated at 50.1 million metric tons by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange.

Brazil continued to hold a slight price advantage over the US for both old- and new-crop free-on-board soybean offers, according to Rhett Montgomery.

USDA reported soybean export sales of 2 million bushels for the current marketing year and 15 million bushels for the next marketing year in the week ended July 2. Export shipments reached 21.1 million bushels, exceeding the weekly pace needed to meet the agency's 2025-26 export forecast.

US soybean export commitments for the 2025-26 marketing year totaled 1.511 billion bushels, down 18% from a year earlier but still ahead of USDA's projected pace. USDA also estimates US ending soybean stocks at 16% above the previous five-year average, Montgomery said.

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