FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Ease as Improved US Crop Ratings Temper Weather Concerns

By

Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Tuesday, with soybean futures and soybean oil ending lower as follow-through selling emerged after traders judged improved US crop ratings had already priced in near-term weather risk.

The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 0.33% lower at $11.92 3/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 0.58% lower at 72.40 cents per pound.

The Nymex August ethanol futures contract settled 0.26% higher on Tuesday at $1.965 per gallon.

August soybean futures lost ground after failing to sustain a move above the key $12 level, while weaker soybean oil prices added pressure. Even so, futures remain supported ahead of a critical weather period for US crops, according to DTN analyst Rhett Montgomery.

The US Department of Agriculture rated 65% of the US soybean crop in good-to-excellent condition, up 1 percentage point from the week before but still below the same level last year.

Traders are expected to use the ratings as a benchmark ahead of hotter and drier weather, Montgomery.

State conditions were mixed, with Kentucky and Ohio posting some of the largest weekly improvements. Illinois' good-to-excellent rating fell 2 percentage points to 56%, while poor-to-very-poor ratings rose two points, Montgomery said.

Iowa's soybean crop was rated 74% good-to-excellent, while Minnesota led the top-producing states at 81%, underscoring uneven crop conditions across the US.

Pod setting reached 19% of the US soybean crop, ahead of the seasonal pace. Demand remained firm as China increased soybean purchases, despite Tuesday's end of a four-session streak of reported export sales, according to Montgomery.

Brazil's National Supply Company, also known as Conab, raised its 2026 soybean production forecast to a record 180.6 million metric tons, broadly matching the USDA's latest outlook, Montgomery added.

Brazil and the US remain closely matched in new-crop soybean export offers, with the US holding a slight pricing advantage.

Related Articles

Commodities

Grasim Industries' Aditya Birla to Buy Sprng Energy from Shell in $1.8 Billion Deal

Grasim Industries' (BOM:500300,NSE:GRASIM) Aditya Birla Renewables signed a definitive agreement to acquire Sprng Energy from Shell plc for an enterprise value of $1.8 billion.The acquisition adds a 5-GWp contracted capacity to Aditya's renewables business and is one of the biggest deals in the Indian market, according to a statement on Monday.The deal, which is being funded through debt and equity from Grasim and BlackRock's Global Infrastructure Partners, is expected to complete within the year, subject to certain conditions.

BOM:500300NSE:GRASIM
Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Fall to 2-Month Low on Strong Supply, Weaker LNG Flows

US natural gas futures fell to a two-month low on Monday as stronger domestic production and lower liquefied natural gas export flows weighed on prices, although hotter-than-expected weather forecasts helped limit the decline.The front-month Henry Hub contract, along with the continuous contract, settled down 1.29% at $2.902 per million British thermal units.According to Barchart, rising US natural gas output and reduced LNG exports pressured prices. Natural gas production in the Permian Basin climbed above 23 billion cubic feet per day over the weekend, the highest level in two months.At the same time, gas flows to US LNG export terminals fell to 17.5 Bcf/d on Monday, the lowest level in a month, leaving more gas available for the domestic market.The decline was tempered by forecasts for hotter weather, which could increase demand from power generators to meet higher air-conditioning loads.The Commodity Weather Group said on Monday that weather models had shifted toward warmer conditions, with above-average temperatures expected across much of the northern US through July 17.Citing BNEF data, Barchart said Lower 48 dry gas production reached a robust 113.2 Bcf/d on Monday, up 5.5% from a year earlier and well above the US Energy Information Administration's projected record annual average of 111.1 Bcf/d for 2026. Lower 48 gas demand was estimated at 77.4 Bcf/d, up 4.2% year over year.Separately, Celsius Energy estimated power-sector gas consumption at 42.5 Bcf/d on July 12, or 3.4 Bcf/d below the level recorded a year earlier.BNEF estimated net LNG feedgas deliveries to US export terminals at 17.5 Bcf/d on Monday, down 5.8% from the previous week.Meanwhile, Natural Gas Intelligence is forecasting a 44 billion cubic feet injection into US natural gas storage for the week ended July 10.The projected build compares with a 47 Bcf injection during the same week last year and the five-year average increase of 45 Bcf, according to EIA data.A 44 Bcf storage build would follow the previous week's 61 Bcf injection, lifting total inventories to an estimated 3.027 trillion cubic feet. As of July 3, working gas in storage stood at 2.983 Tcf, 15 bcf below year-ago levels but 185 bcf above the five-year average, according to the EIA.

Commodities

PJM Issues Hot Weather Alert for July 14-17

PJM Interconnection expects electricity demand to peak at 162,699 megawatts this week and has issued a Hot Weather Alert covering July 14-17, the regional transmission operator said Monday.PJM forecasts peak demand of 151,105 MW on Tuesday; 162,699 MW on Wednesday; 160,893 MW on Thursday, and 154,942 MW on Friday.The operator recently recorded a preliminary all-time peak load of 168,158 MW on July 2, exceeding the previous record of 165,563 MW set on Aug. 2, 2006, it said.PJM said operators monitor the grid around the clock, balancing electricity supply and demand while preparing for multiple scenarios involving extreme weather, emergency conditions and equipment failures.The control room team continuously adjusts power output as demand changes, prevents transmission facilities from becoming overloaded and responds to unusual operating conditions to maintain reliable electricity service, PJM said.The alert covers PJM's entire service territory as temperatures climb above 90 degrees Fahrenheit. PJM said the measure helps transmission and generation operators prepare for higher electricity demand and does not require any action from customers.