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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Jumps on China's $17 Billion Ag Purchase Deal

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed higher on Monday, as soybean traders rewarded the news that China has agreed to purchase $17 billion of US agricultural products in each of the next three years.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 3.06% higher on Monday at $12.13 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 2.37% higher at 75.63 cents per pound.

The Nymex June ethanol futures contract settled 1.41% lower on Friday at $1.92 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, DTN analyst, said the markets received relief from last week's sharp selloff.

"The soybean market recovered most of Thursday and Friday's losses, as traders were apparently simply looking for any value or volume indication to deem last week's trade summit as a bullish success," Montgomery said.

The analyst added that the weekend trade details are not fully confirmed, but it is reported that the $17 billion in US Ag products will be in addition to the 25 million metric tons of soybeans, which has been a volume target since last October's summit in South Korea.

He added that 25 mmt of soybeans at $13 on a free-on-board basis would be worth nearly $12 billion.

On Monday, the US Department of Agriculture reported that soybean inspections totaled 17.8 million bushels for the week ending May 14. Total inspections for 2025-26 are now at 1.267 billion bushels, down 22% from the previous year.

USDA is estimating soybean exports to total 1.530 bb in 2025-26, down 19% from the previous year. Soybean inspections are running behind USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 20% above the previous five-year average.

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