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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Falls on Favorable Summer Crop Weather

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Monday, with soybean traders disappointed by a lack of Chinese soybean purchases, favorable growing weather, and liquidation ahead of the July contract delivery period.

The Chicago Board of Trade July soybean futures contract closed 1.55% lower at $11.08 per bushel, while the CBOT July soybean oil futures contract settled 3.13% lower at 69.07 cents per pound.

The Nymex July ethanol futures contract settled 1.60% higher on Friday at $1.90 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said traders remain bearish on crop weather as the calendar turns to July.

"The soybean market was pressured on Monday by weak product markets stemming from few concerns for the growing US crop and plenty of near-term supply out of South America to bridge the gap to the US harvest in a few months," Montgomery said in a daily note.

He added that old-crop soybean futures are once again set to test long-standing support near $11.12 on the August contract, with $11 as the next bearish target.

The US Department of Agriculture released data on Monday showing a fresh sale of 136,000 metric tons of soybeans to unknown destinations for the 2026/27 marketing year.

The USDA's Weekly Export Inspection Report, also released on Monday, showed soybean inspections totaled 15.4 million bushels for the week ending June 25.

Total inspections for the 2025/26 marketing year now stand at 1.371 billion bushels, down 19% from the previous year.

The USDA estimates soybean exports will total 1.510 billion bushels in 2025/26, down 20% from the previous year.

Soybean inspections are running slightly ahead of USDA's estimated pace at a time when USDA's estimate of soybean ending stocks is 16% larger than the previous five-year average.

USDA's Acreage Report due Tuesday is expected to show 85.37 million acres of soybeans. Analysts also expect the USDA to peg US soybean stocks as of June 1 at 1.051 bb, the largest since 2020, if realized.

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