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US Biofuels Update: Soybean Complex Advances as China Buying, Dry Weather Support Prices

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed mostly higher on Monday, with soybean oil leading gains as continued Chinese buying and a hotter, drier US weather outlook supported soybean prices despite resistance near the $12-per-bushel level.

The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 0.42% higher at $11.96 3/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 3.35% higher at 72.82 cents per pound.

The Nymex August ethanol futures contract settled 1.42% higher on Monday at $1.96 per gallon.

August soybean futures gained 5 cents but retreated from overnight highs after failing again to hold above the key $12 resistance level, said Rhett Montgomery, an analyst at DTN.

Recent Chinese buying and forecasts for hot, dry weather across the US Grain Belt continued to underpin soybean prices. If August futures move above $12, chart resistance near $12.20 becomes the next upside target, Montgomery said.

The US Department of Agriculture raised its 2025-26 soybean export forecast by 10 million bushels to 1.52 billion bushels in Friday's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report, while still projecting exports to decline 20% over the year.

The agency forecast a record 2026-27 US soybean crop, but lower carry-in stocks and stronger export demand largely balanced the increase in supplies.

Montgomery said a one-bushel-per-acre change from USDA's 53-bushel-per-acre yield forecast would alter production by about 84 million bushels, underscoring the market's focus on weather.

Private exporters sold 136,000 metric tons of US soybeans to China, marking the fourth consecutive daily reported sale, according to USDA data.

The recent rise in US soybean prices has outpaced Brazilian export offers, creating a competitive challenge. Even so, sustained Chinese purchases suggest buyers remain active under trade agreements outlined earlier this year, Montgomery added.

US soybean export inspections reached 15.4 million bushels in the week ended July 9, down from the previous week but well above the same week a year earlier. Marketing-year inspections total 1.407 billion bushels, down 18%.

Inspections are running slightly ahead of the pace needed to meet the USDA's 1.52 billion-bushel export forecast, even as projected ending stocks remain 16% above the previous five-year average, said Dana Mantini, senior analyst at DTN.

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Commodities

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Commodities

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Commodities

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