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US Biofuels Update: Favorable Crop Weather Overrides Strong Sales to Pressure Soybean Complex

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Biofuels feedstock futures closed lower on Thursday, with less threatening crop weather trumping strong weekly export sales.

The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 0.06% lower at $11.77 1/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 1.19% lower at 68.35 cents per pound.

The Nymex September ethanol futures contract settled unchanged on Wednesday at $1.98 per gallon.

Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said the soybean market fell for a second straight session in a quiet, mixed trade.

"Traders are displaying caution ahead of the rainfall slated to hit the soybean belt over the next 1-2 weeks, while prices simultaneously remain supported by a strong demand showing in July," Montgomery said.

On Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture announced soybean sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2026/2027 marketing year.

The USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report showed that for the week ending July 23, soybean sales totaled 11.1 million bushels, or 302,300 mt, for the 2025-26 marketing year, and an increase of 49 mb, or 1,333,200 mt, for 2026-27.

Last week's export shipments of 18 mb were above the 16.4 mb needed each week to achieve USDA's export estimate of 1.520 bb in 2025-26.

Soybean export commitments now total 1.532 bb in 2025-26 and are down 18% from a year ago. That is ahead of USDA's estimated pace, even as USDA's estimate of US ending soybean stocks is 13% larger than the previous five-year average.

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