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US Biofuels Update: Ethanol Futures Play Catch Up To RBOB, Soybean Oil Faces Headwinds

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Ethanol futures traded higher for the second straight session on Tuesday, while Wednesday's soybean oil market dropped in a quiet, mixed day.

The Nymex November ethanol futures contract settled 1.47% higher on Tuesday at $2.07 per gallon.

The Energy Information Administration reported on Wednesday that for the week ending Sept. 11, US ethanol production averaged 1.10 million barrels per day, the same as last week, and up from last year's 1.06 mmb/d. The four-week average output was 1.11 mmb/d, up from 1.08 mmb/d the same period last year.

The Chicago Board of Trade October soybean oil futures contract settled 1.20% lower at 69.04 cents per pound on Wednesday, while the CBOT November soybean futures contract closed 0.21% higher at $13.21 1/2 per bushel.

As a derivative of soybean feedstock, soybean oil's market is inherently tied to the broader soybean complex.

Susan Stroud, Founder and Chief Executive Officer of No Bull Agriculture, said the ethanol market is working hard to keep pace with other gasoline markets.

"Ethanol is playing catch-up with gasoline. Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB) is up nearly 20% over the past month, while ethanol has moved a whopping 3%," Stroud said.

However, soybean oil has been under pressure. "Soybean oil, on the other hand, has several headwinds that have kept it from following heating oil to new highs: heavy competing feedstock imports, cash weakness tied to recent renewable diesel capacity being offline/not running at full rates, and strength in meal," she said.

Stroud added that tightness in the physical meal market has pushed futures to their highest since June 2024, putting additional pressure on oil.

That said, even if the board isn't reflecting it, demand remains a force to be reckoned with, Stroud said.

"The August NOPA crush (released on Tuesday) set a new monthly record and was up more than 8% year-over-year, yet soybean oil stocks still posted a larger-than-expected drawdown," Stroud said.

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Continue to Rise on Warmer Weather Forecasts

US natural gas prices rose in after-hours trading Tuesday as forecasts for above-average temperatures across parts of the country through the end of September pointed to firmer demand from power generators for air conditioning.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each rose 1.66% to $2.933 per million British thermal units.The Commodity Weather Group said Tuesday that above-average temperatures are expected across the South and Southeast through Sept. 29."Temperatures are still expected to trend lower overall as the calendar moves deeper into September, but the warmer forecast shift could slow the seasonal decline in power generation demand and temper the pace at which storage injections strengthen," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.Total US natural gas demand stood at 76.2 billion cubic feet per day on Tuesday, up 3.9% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.Longer-range weather revisions added heat across the South Central and Southeast, helping power burn remain firm at 45.5 Bcf/d before the seasonal decline accelerates, Gelber & Associates said.Celsius Energy put power burn at 41.4 Bcf/d on Monday, up 2.9% from the same day a year earlier. The seven-day rolling average for the week ended Sept. 14 was 43.6 Bcf/d, up 5.5% from the comparable period last year, it said.Consumption is still expected to decline in the second half of September as cooling demand fades, Gelber said, adding that Tuesday's advance reflects a narrower injection outlook without erasing broader shoulder-season pressure.LNG feedgas demand was estimated at 18.8 Bcf/d, down 2.2% from a week earlier, but continues to provide a strong demand floor despite easing from last week's highs, Gelber said.On the supply side, natural gas production remains strong after a brief slowdown, NRG said, topping 110 Bcf/d for two consecutive days over the past week.Barchart reported Tuesday production at 111.7 Bcf/d, up 1.9% from the same period last year. Trading Economics said strong domestic production is capping further price gains, with Lower-48 output averaging more than 111 Bcf/d, up from 110.7 Bcf/d in July.The stronger late-summer demand has tightened the near-term supply/demand balance, pulling projected fall inventories down closer to 3.8 trillion cubic feet and reducing some of the storage cushion that had weighed on October prices earlier this month.

Commodities

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise, API Says

Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 7.14 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 11, following a 300,000-bbl draw the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 1.8-mmbbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Mostly Higher Tuesday Afternoon, With Natural Gas Leading the Generation Mix

US wholesale electricity markets were mostly higher Tuesday afternoon, with intraday prices ranging from a high of $372.39 per megawatt-hour to a low of -$102.90/MWh, according to GridStatus.io.Electric Reliability Council of Texas' real-time locational marginal price was $36.99/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 41.59 gigawatts, while solar accounted for the largest share of the generation mix at 36.6%.California Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was $27.25/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 0.66 GW, with solar making up the largest share of the generation mix at 66.2%.Southwest Power Pool's real-time LMP stood at $92.93/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 36.68 GW, while natural gas represented the largest share of the generation mix at 38%. Prices climbed to an intraday peak of $233.61/MWh at 4:25 p.m. ET.PJM's real-time LMP was $66.99/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load totaled 97.39 GW, with gas providing the largest share of the generation mix at 42.8%. Prices rose to an intraday high of $264.54/MWh at 4:10 p.m. ET.Midcontinent Independent System Operator's real-time LMP was negative at -$69.78/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 86.07 GW, while natural gas accounted for the largest share of the generation mix at 33.1%.Prices reached an intraday high of $372.39/MWh at 5:20 a.m. ET, before falling to an intraday low of negative $102.90/MWh at 2:50 p.m. ET.New York Independent System Operator's real-time LMP stood at $51.66/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load reached 15.82 GW, with dual fuel making up the largest share of the generation mix at 29.6%. Prices advanced to an intraday high of $245.16/MWh at 2:25 p.m. ET.Independent System Operator New England's real-time LMP was $31.83/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load came in at 9.98 GW, while natural gas supplied the largest share of the generation mix at 37.1%.Independent Electricity System Operator's real-time LMP reached $32.76/MWh at 4 p.m. ET. Net load was 15.15 GW at 3:55 p.m. ET, with nuclear accounting for the largest share of the generation mix at 43.1%.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the US from Sept. 23-29, with below-normal readings in parts of the West.